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Economic Summary
Texas Economic Forecast 2014-15
Economic Summary
Fiscal Years 1991—2041
| Year | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross State Product (Billion FY2009 Dollars) | 611.5 | 640.4 | 663.8 | 689.8 | 718 | 748.9 | 799.3 | 859.3 | 899.3 | 933.9 | 958.2 | 981.2 | 982 | 1,028.90 | 1,049.90 | 1,099.70 | 1,156.10 | 1,172.00 | 1,169.30 | 1,192.40 | 1,234.80 | 1,318.50 | 1,374.90 | 1,426.40 | 1,469.10 | 1,516.20 | 1,578.30 | 1,624.00 | 1,670.40 | 1,725.90 | 1,780.00 | 1,832.70 | 1,888.90 | 1,944.40 | 1,999.40 | 2,059.40 | 2,121.90 | 2,188.50 | 2,257.20 | 2,328.10 | 2,399.80 | 2,472.90 | 2,548.20 | 2,627.00 | 2,707.60 | 2,790.20 | 2,874.80 | 2,961.20 | 3,049.10 | 3,143.40 | 3,243.30 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross State Product (Billion FY2009 Dollars) | 1.5 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 4.8 | 2 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 1.4 | -0.2 | 2 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3 | 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3 | 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
| Gross State Product (Billion Current Dollars) | 400.4 | 422.1 | 451.8 | 481.2 | 510.7 | 548.2 | 599.9 | 643.1 | 677.4 | 733.7 | 778.4 | 795.2 | 828.1 | 901.8 | 974.6 | 1,073.40 | 1,154.00 | 1,242.50 | 1,174.70 | 1,225.10 | 1,327.70 | 1,439.80 | 1,514.00 | 1,603.60 | 1,643.70 | 1,732.40 | 1,848.50 | 1,948.90 | 2,056.30 | 2,177.30 | 2,303.70 | 2,427.10 | 2,555.50 | 2,690.10 | 2,827.90 | 2,972.50 | 3,122.90 | 3,281.80 | 3,446.90 | 3,619.80 | 3,801.00 | 3,989.80 | 4,189.50 | 4,400.80 | 4,622.90 | 4,857.60 | 5,101.80 | 5,358.00 | 5,627.00 | 5,916.20 | 6,223.50 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross State Product (Billion Current Dollars) | 4.9 | 5.4 | 7 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 10.1 | 7.5 | 7.7 | -5.5 | 4.3 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 6 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| Personal Income (Billion Current Dollars) | 305.7 | 328.8 | 350 | 368.5 | 395.1 | 423.1 | 459.4 | 503.1 | 534.7 | 581.9 | 625.5 | 634.2 | 654.2 | 685.4 | 739.2 | 813.3 | 863.5 | 949.8 | 927.3 | 942.8 | 1,031.90 | 1,103.90 | 1,156.90 | 1,209.70 | 1,255.00 | 1,324.40 | 1,411.80 | 1,497.00 | 1,583.60 | 1,680.60 | 1,779.10 | 1,878.90 | 1,982.90 | 2,092.60 | 2,208.70 | 2,328.70 | 2,451.20 | 2,581.40 | 2,716.70 | 2,858.20 | 3,004.50 | 3,156.60 | 3,316.50 | 3,486.50 | 3,667.20 | 3,858.10 | 4,057.00 | 4,262.30 | 4,476.10 | 4,701.80 | 4,936.50 |
| Annual Percent Change for Personal Income | 6.3 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 10 | 6.2 | 10 | -2.4 | 1.7 | 9.4 | 7 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) | 7,167.00 | 7,238.50 | 7,428.20 | 7,675.70 | 7,969.60 | 8,194.10 | 8,521.30 | 8,862.90 | 9,107.40 | 9,363.50 | 9,528.90 | 9,424.00 | 9,373.30 | 9,446.20 | 9,664.70 | 9,982.20 | 10,310.70 | 10,582.00 | 10,402.10 | 10,284.20 | 10,508.40 | 10,785.60 | 11,116.80 | 11,465.10 | 11,678.00 | 11,929.50 | 12,200.00 | 12,462.80 | 12,718.40 | 12,947.20 | 13,130.00 | 13,311.40 | 13,495.10 | 13,683.60 | 13,877.60 | 14,077.20 | 14,293.10 | 14,516.40 | 14,736.80 | 14,963.80 | 15,177.60 | 15,403.20 | 15,631.30 | 15,863.50 | 16,098.90 | 16,336.40 | 16,578.60 | 16,824.30 | 17,074.70 | 17,336.90 | 17,586.20 |
| Annual Percent Change for Nonfarm Employment | 1.9 | 1 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 4 | 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.8 | -1.1 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.6 | -1.7 | -1.1 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.3 | -4.5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Resident Population (Thousands) | 17,356.10 | 17,716.40 | 18,110.70 | 18,512.60 | 18,908.00 | 19,293.20 | 19,690.80 | 20,103.70 | 20,507.10 | 20,896.70 | 21,271.90 | 21,641.60 | 21,989.30 | 22,349.50 | 22,744.30 | 23,326.60 | 23,772.50 | 24,249.60 | 24,737.50 | 25,191.50 | 25,592.80 | 26,005.80 | 26,399.50 | 26,788.60 | 27,181.70 | 27,558.60 | 27,920.30 | 28,297.00 | 28,709.60 | 29,155.30 | 29,611.90 | 30,068.50 | 30,524.40 | 30,980.20 | 31,439.10 | 31,902.30 | 32,366.70 | 32,829.60 | 33,288.30 | 33,742.40 | 34,195.20 | 34,652.90 | 35,116.80 | 35,583.10 | 36,049.30 | 36,515.70 | 36,982.70 | 37,449.40 | 37,917.80 | 38,390.10 | 38,864.80 |
| Annual Percent Change for Resident Population | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 2 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.9 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 5 | 5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Taxable Oil Price ($per Barrel) | $23.01 | $18.61 | $17.95 | $14.68 | $16.22 | $17.86 | $20.59 | $15.12 | $12.91 | $25.16 | $27.73 | $21.91 | $28.61 | $32.51 | $46.92 | $61.19 | $59.13 | $98.89 | $59.99 | $72.75 | $87.91 | $91.96 | $95.37 | $96.56 | $64.35 | $64.52 | $69.27 | $72.69 | $78.83 | $83.31 | $87.77 | $92.46 | $97.41 | $102.62 | $108.11 | $113.89 | $119.99 | $122.99 | $126.06 | $129.21 | $132.44 | $135.76 | $139.15 | $142.63 | $146.19 | $149.85 | $153.60 | $157.44 | $161.37 | $165.41 | $169.54 |
| Taxable Nat. Gas Price ($per Mcf) | $1.43 | $1.36 | $1.74 | $1.76 | $1.42 | $1.60 | $2.07 | $2.00 | $1.71 | $2.63 | $4.93 | $2.48 | $4.18 | $4.77 | $5.79 | $7.54 | $6.17 | $7.47 | $5.11 | $3.91 | $4.09 | $3.51 | $3.33 | $4.31 | $3.76 | $3.56 | $3.72 | $3.91 | $4.05 | $4.10 | $4.24 | $4.43 | $4.60 | $4.76 | $4.93 | $5.10 | $5.28 | $5.46 | $5.65 | $5.85 | $6.06 | $6.27 | $6.49 | $6.72 | $6.95 | $7.19 | $7.45 | $7.71 | $7.98 | $8.26 | $8.54 |
| U. S. ECONOMY | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gross U.S. Product (Billion FY2009 Dollars ) | 8,921.20 | 9,169.00 | 9,459.30 | 9,805.70 | 10,117.60 | 10,446.50 | 10,917.10 | 11,385.80 | 11,927.80 | 12,470.70 | 12,675.80 | 12,844.10 | 13,129.90 | 13,668.10 | 14,128.50 | 14,527.90 | 14,805.00 | 14,934.10 | 14,427.50 | 14,684.50 | 14,957.80 | 15,308.30 | 15,589.70 | 15,980.60 | 16,397.30 | 16,798.30 | 17,257.20 | 17,673.60 | 18,132.10 | 18,638.00 | 19,124.80 | 19,579.50 | 20,041.30 | 20,500.80 | 20,967.30 | 21,457.30 | 21,953.00 | 22,466.00 | 22,984.00 | 23,515.70 | 24,050.70 | 24,598.60 | 25,166.60 | 25,746.30 | 26,336.40 | 26,939.20 | 27,551.60 | 28,191.70 | 28,837.40 | 29,512.80 | 30,206.00 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross Domestic Product | -0.6 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | -3.4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Consumer Price Index (1982-84=100) | 135.5 | 139.5 | 143.5 | 147.5 | 151.5 | 155.5 | 160 | 162.5 | 165.5 | 170.5 | 176.25 | 178.75 | 183 | 187.25 | 193.5 | 200.25 | 205.25 | 214.5 | 213.75 | 217.25 | 223.25 | 228.5 | 232 | 236 | 236.7 | 240.8 | 245.9 | 251.3 | 257.5 | 263.8 | 270.3 | 276.5 | 282.5 | 289 | 294.5 | 300.5 | 307 | 313.5 | 319.8 | 326.3 | 332.8 | 339.8 | 346.8 | 354 | 361 | 369 | 376.5 | 384 | 392 | 400.5 | 409 |
| Annual Percent Change for Consumer Price Index | 5 | 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 4.5 | -0.3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 2.2 | 2 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Prime Interest Rate (%) | 9.1 | 6.7 | 6 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 9 | 8 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 6 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 6 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 |
Source: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts and IHS Global Insight, Inc.