Top navigation skipped
Forecast Summary
Texas Economic Forecast 2014-15
Forecast Summary
Calendar Years 1990—2041
| Year | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross State Product (Billion CY2009 Dollars) | 599.3 | 619.7 | 649 | 669.1 | 698 | 723.9 | 758.4 | 814.8 | 872 | 909 | 937.7 | 966 | 983.1 | 989.9 | 1,035.80 | 1,056.50 | 1,118.30 | 1,165.00 | 1,173.50 | 1,167.20 | 1,202.00 | 1,252.00 | 1,338.60 | 1,386.50 | 1,439.30 | 1,477.20 | 1,532.90 | 1,590.20 | 1,634.80 | 1,683.40 | 1,740.50 | 1,792.40 | 1,846.80 | 1,902.80 | 1,958.10 | 2,014.00 | 2,074.40 | 2,138.50 | 2,205.50 | 2,274.90 | 2,345.70 | 2,417.90 | 2,491.70 | 2,567.60 | 2,647.20 | 2,727.70 | 2,811.40 | 2,896.30 | 2,982.40 | 3,072.50 | 3,167.50 | 3,269.00 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross State Product (Billion CY2009 Dollars) | 3.5 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 4.6 | 2 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 0.7 | -0.5 | 3 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 3 | 3.4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3 | 3.1 | 3 | 3.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
| Gross State Product (Billion Current Dollars) | 390.1 | 404.6 | 429.6 | 459.1 | 489.6 | 517.6 | 559.9 | 612.7 | 651.9 | 689.2 | 746.4 | 785 | 799.9 | 843.7 | 920.4 | 998.1 | 1,093.80 | 1,177.00 | 1,243.30 | 1,167.20 | 1,248.50 | 1,357.30 | 1,463.00 | 1,535.10 | 1,618.20 | 1,657.20 | 1,765.70 | 1,876.30 | 1,974.00 | 2,085.50 | 2,209.00 | 2,334.60 | 2,458.40 | 2,588.80 | 2,724.10 | 2,863.50 | 3,009.00 | 3,162.30 | 3,322.40 | 3,489.60 | 3,663.80 | 3,847.50 | 4,038.90 | 4,241.40 | 4,455.40 | 4,680.20 | 4,918.00 | 5,164.70 | 5,423.10 | 5,698.40 | 5,990.60 | 6,303.80 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross State Product (Billion Current Dollars) | 8.8 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 5.5 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 5.6 | -6.1 | 7 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 6 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 6 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| Personal Income (Billion Current Dollars) | 296.1 | 309.8 | 335.1 | 354.6 | 374.9 | 401.1 | 431.1 | 469.7 | 513.3 | 543.1 | 593.6 | 632.9 | 636.6 | 661.5 | 696 | 756.3 | 828.5 | 878.5 | 963.7 | 916.3 | 961 | 1,051.70 | 1,127.70 | 1,160.10 | 1,226.20 | 1,268.80 | 1,346.20 | 1,436.70 | 1,517.40 | 1,607.10 | 1,705.40 | 1,803.70 | 1,904.40 | 2,009.70 | 2,121.00 | 2,238.30 | 2,359.00 | 2,483.00 | 2,614.80 | 2,751.30 | 2,894.40 | 3,041.80 | 3,195.80 | 3,358.00 | 3,530.70 | 3,714.00 | 3,907.30 | 4,107.40 | 4,314.90 | 4,531.20 | 4,759.90 | 4,967.60 |
| Annual Percent Change for Personal Income | 8.5 | 4.6 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 7 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 0.6 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 6 | 9.7 | -4.9 | 4.9 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5 | 5 | 4.4 |
| Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) | 7,098.60 | 7,177.90 | 7,272.30 | 7,485.00 | 7,755.20 | 8,027.10 | 8,261.10 | 8,611.90 | 8,940.00 | 9,156.90 | 9,429.00 | 9,511.60 | 9,413.60 | 9,368.00 | 9,493.30 | 9,736.70 | 10,062.60 | 10,392.40 | 10,606.60 | 10,303.70 | 10,335.80 | 10,566.50 | 10,874.10 | 11,191.90 | 11,550.80 | 11,722.80 | 11,999.60 | 12,266.90 | 12,528.30 | 12,777.50 | 12,997.00 | 13,175.80 | 13,356.40 | 13,542.70 | 13,730.60 | 13,926.80 | 14,129.60 | 14,348.50 | 14,572.50 | 14,791.00 | 15,019.40 | 15,233.40 | 15,460.00 | 15,688.90 | 15,922.20 | 16,158.00 | 16,396.70 | 16,639.60 | 16,886.60 | 17,137.60 | 17,401.40 | 17,618.50 |
| Annual Percent Change for Nonfarm Employment | 3.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 3 | 0.9 | -1 | -0.5 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.1 | -2.9 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Resident Population (Thousands) | 17,104.70 | 17,443.90 | 17,811.80 | 18,211.30 | 18,612.30 | 19,005.00 | 19,390.90 | 19,792.90 | 20,206.00 | 20,606.20 | 20,991.10 | 21,365.20 | 21,730.60 | 22,077.30 | 22,442.90 | 22,897.20 | 23,426.00 | 23,891.20 | 24,370.90 | 24,856.70 | 25,294.50 | 25,694.50 | 26,106.70 | 26,496.60 | 26,887.20 | 27,277.60 | 27,650.00 | 28,011.80 | 28,396.50 | 28,818.90 | 29,269.60 | 29,726.60 | 30,183.00 | 30,638.80 | 31,095.00 | 31,555.00 | 32,018.80 | 32,483.10 | 32,945.20 | 33,402.50 | 33,855.90 | 34,309.40 | 34,768.70 | 35,233.70 | 35,700.10 | 36,166.20 | 36,632.80 | 37,099.80 | 37,566.60 | 38,035.80 | 38,508.90 | 38,984.40 |
| Annual Percent Change for Resident Population | 1.5 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2 | 2.3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.4 | 7 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 5 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 6 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5 | 5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Taxable Oil Price (dollars per Barrel) | $19.07 | $21.91 | $18.45 | $17.13 | $15.07 | $16.63 | $18.54 | $19.22 | $14.57 | $15.97 | $25.80 | $26.28 | $23.59 | $29.37 | $38.96 | $52.74 | $61.48 | $68.49 | $96.86 | $57.56 | $75.95 | $91.73 | $92.63 | $96.05 | $87.87 | $64.39 | $65.71 | $70.13 | $74.23 | $79.95 | $84.42 | $88.94 | $93.70 | $98.71 | $103.99 | $109.56 | $115.42 | $120.74 | $123.76 | $126.85 | $130.02 | $133.27 | $136.60 | $140.02 | $143.52 | $147.11 | $150.79 | $154.56 | $158.42 | $162.38 | $166.44 | $169.54 |
| Taxable Natural Gas Price (dollars per Mcf) | $1.48 | $1.37 | $1.70 | $1.89 | $1.61 | $1.45 | $2.07 | $2.17 | $1.83 | $2.08 | $3.75 | $3.85 | $2.89 | $4.71 | $5.44 | $7.27 | $6.17 | $6.30 | $7.83 | $3.29 | $4.13 | $4.31 | $2.97 | $3.69 | $4.48 | $3.46 | $3.66 | $3.79 | $4.04 | $4.06 | $4.14 | $4.29 | $4.47 | $4.64 | $4.80 | $4.97 | $5.14 | $5.32 | $5.51 | $5.70 | $5.90 | $6.11 | $6.32 | $6.55 | $6.77 | $7.01 | $7.26 | $7.51 | $7.77 | $8.05 | $8.33 | $8.54 |
| U. S. ECONOMY | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gross Domestic Product (Billion CY2009 Dollars ) | 8,955.00 | 8,948.40 | 9,266.50 | 9,521.00 | 9,905.50 | 10,174.80 | 10,561.00 | 11,034.90 | 11,525.90 | 12,065.90 | 12,559.70 | 12,682.30 | 12,908.80 | 13,271.10 | 13,773.50 | 14,234.30 | 14,613.80 | 14,873.80 | 14,830.40 | 14,418.80 | 14,783.80 | 15,020.60 | 15,369.20 | 15,710.30 | 16,063.20 | 16,495.50 | 16,913.40 | 17,362.90 | 17,780.50 | 18,256.10 | 18,764.30 | 19,238.70 | 19,694.30 | 20,157.10 | 20,615.10 | 21,089.10 | 21,577.40 | 22,081.70 | 22,594.70 | 23,115.80 | 23,647.70 | 24,187.20 | 24,739.00 | 25,312.00 | 25,892.40 | 26,485.10 | 27,090.00 | 27,711.10 | 28,351.00 | 29,003.70 | 29,684.60 | 30,384.60 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross Domestic Product | 1.8 | -0.1 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 4 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.8 | -0.3 | -2.8 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Consumer Price Index (1982-84=100) | 130.8 | 136.5 | 140.5 | 144.5 | 148.5 | 152.5 | 156.8 | 160.8 | 163 | 166.5 | 172 | 177.3 | 179.8 | 183.8 | 188.8 | 195.3 | 201.3 | 207.3 | 215.5 | 214.5 | 218 | 225 | 229.5 | 232.8 | 236.7 | 237.2 | 242.2 | 247.1 | 252.8 | 259.1 | 265.3 | 272 | 277.9 | 284.2 | 290.6 | 295.8 | 302.3 | 308.5 | 315 | 321.5 | 327.8 | 334.5 | 341.5 | 348.5 | 355.8 | 363 | 371 | 378.3 | 386 | 394 | 402.8 | 411 |
| Annual Percent Change for Consumer Price Index | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3 | 4 | -0.5 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 2.1 | 2 | 2.2 | 2 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2 |
| Prime Interest Rate (%) | 10 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 6 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 8 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 |
Source: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts and IHS Global Insight, Inc.