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Economic Summary
Texas Economic Forecast 2015-16
Economic Summary
Fiscal Years 1991—2045
| Year | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross State Product (Billion FY2009 Dollars) | 606.2 | 627.7 | 656.1 | 686.3 | 714.1 | 745.8 | 799.7 | 860.7 | 901.8 | 938.8 | 964.3 | 981.2 | 984.5 | 1,028.0 | 1,055.9 | 1,096.8 | 1,157.9 | 1,172.0 | 1,170.5 | 1,192.6 | 1,230.4 | 1,303.9 | 1,375.5 | 1,454.9 | 1,489.9 | 1,525.7 | 1,561.4 | 1,617.6 | 1,677.9 | 1,733.1 | 1,795.3 | 1,845.9 | 1,900.8 | 1,960.0 | 2,018.7 | 2,081.6 | 2,149.9 | 2,219.6 | 2,291.0 | 2,364.2 | 2,439.5 | 2,517.2 | 2,596.3 | 2,676.1 | 2,760.9 | 2,848.9 | 2,940.1 | 3,033.3 | 3,129.2 | 3,229.1 | 3,332.0 | 3,438.8 | 3,550.1 | 3,663.3 | 3,779.4 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross State Product (Billion FY2009 Dollars) | 1.5 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 1.2 | -0.1 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Gross State Product (Billion Current Dollars) | 401.3 | 422.7 | 452.1 | 481.2 | 510.9 | 548.6 | 600.6 | 644.5 | 679.3 | 738.7 | 782.1 | 796.6 | 828.7 | 904.1 | 976.9 | 1,073.1 | 1,155.8 | 1,242.1 | 1,175.7 | 1,225.4 | 1,322.9 | 1,424.5 | 1,530.4 | 1,631.6 | 1,642.9 | 1,695.1 | 1,768.4 | 1,867.6 | 1,974.5 | 2,079.9 | 2,197.5 | 2,305.6 | 2,421.8 | 2,545.8 | 2,673.6 | 2,808.9 | 2,953.3 | 3,103.2 | 3,259.9 | 3,423.5 | 3,595.9 | 3,776.0 | 3,962.4 | 4,154.9 | 4,358.6 | 4,572.0 | 4,795.3 | 5,027.4 | 5,270.1 | 5,524.9 | 5,791.0 | 6,070.5 | 6,364.4 | 6,668.8 | 6,985.0 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross State Product (Billion Current Dollars) | 4.9 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 7.5 | -5.3 | 4.2 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 0.7 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 |
| Personal Income (Billion Current Dollars) | 305.7 | 328.8 | 350.0 | 368.5 | 395.1 | 423.1 | 459.4 | 503.1 | 534.7 | 581.9 | 625.5 | 634.2 | 654.2 | 685.4 | 739.2 | 813.3 | 863.5 | 949.8 | 927.3 | 942.8 | 1,031.9 | 1,103.9 | 1,156.9 | 1,205.8 | 1,263.7 | 1,322.8 | 1,401.4 | 1,489.7 | 1,577.6 | 1,673.6 | 1,768.3 | 1,859.6 | 1,960.5 | 2,068.0 | 2,178.2 | 2,297.7 | 2,426.9 | 2,562.3 | 2,704.1 | 2,855.8 | 3,016.7 | 3,186.6 | 3,365.7 | 3,555.6 | 3,758.3 | 3,972.3 | 4,196.8 | 4,434.2 | 4,686.3 | 4,956.2 | 5,237.6 | 5,537.1 | 5,857.9 | 6,197.8 | 6,557.9 |
| Annual Percent Change for Personal Income | 6.3 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 10.0 | -2.4 | 1.7 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) | 7,167.1 | 7,238.5 | 7,428.4 | 7,675.8 | 7,969.7 | 8,193.9 | 8,521.1 | 8,862.9 | 9,107.6 | 9,363.7 | 9,528.9 | 9,423.8 | 9,373.2 | 9,446.3 | 9,664.8 | 9,982.3 | 10,311.3 | 10,582.8 | 10,403.5 | 10,286.5 | 10,511.3 | 10,789.0 | 11,128.9 | 11,456.0 | 11,775.1 | 11,973.6 | 12,190.2 | 12,467.0 | 12,720.1 | 12,975.0 | 13,212.8 | 13,405.8 | 13,623.3 | 13,856.0 | 14,082.2 | 14,315.4 | 14,562.1 | 14,809.5 | 15,057.3 | 15,318.7 | 15,569.3 | 15,829.3 | 16,089.7 | 16,347.1 | 16,613.8 | 16,887.9 | 17,166.3 | 17,442.7 | 17,726.3 | 18,027.0 | 18,312.0 | 18,611.2 | 18,919.4 | 19,228.7 | 19,540.2 |
| Annual Percent Change for Nonfarm Employment | 1.9 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.8 | -1.1 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.6 | -1.7 | -1.1 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Resident Population (Thousands) | 17,356.1 | 17,716.4 | 18,110.7 | 18,512.6 | 18,908.0 | 19,293.2 | 19,690.8 | 20,103.7 | 20,507.1 | 20,896.7 | 21,271.9 | 21,641.6 | 21,989.3 | 22,349.5 | 22,744.3 | 23,326.6 | 23,772.5 | 24,249.6 | 24,737.5 | 25,193.0 | 25,607.4 | 26,037.6 | 26,456.2 | 26,900.1 | 27,350.2 | 27,794.7 | 28,275.4 | 28,768.8 | 29,253.1 | 29,746.9 | 30,245.7 | 30,740.6 | 31,222.3 | 31,707.8 | 32,210.9 | 32,723.4 | 33,242.1 | 33,763.0 | 34,284.4 | 34,805.5 | 35,325.9 | 35,847.9 | 36,371.9 | 36,895.4 | 37,419.0 | 37,946.0 | 38,478.0 | 39,013.3 | 39,551.3 | 40,090.7 | 40,631.4 | 41,178.2 | 41,730.7 | 42,287.4 | 42,850.0 |
| Annual Percent Change for Resident Population | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.7 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| NYMEX Oil Price ($per Barrel) | $25.42 | $20.91 | $20.13 | $16.86 | $18.26 | $19.60 | $22.27 | $17.13 | $14.95 | $26.70 | $29.76 | $23.74 | $30.11 | $34.55 | $50.31 | $65.63 | $63.45 | $101.93 | $64.09 | $76.32 | $91.25 | $94.28 | $93.65 | $101.05 | $64.94 | $49.48 | $56.52 | $60.41 | $63.08 | $65.83 | $71.88 | $74.51 | $77.24 | $80.06 | $83.00 | $86.03 | $89.18 | $92.46 | $95.83 | $99.34 | $102.98 | $106.75 | $110.66 | $114.70 | $118.90 | $123.25 | $127.76 | $132.44 | $137.28 | $142.31 | $147.52 | $152.91 | $158.52 | $164.32 | $170.33 |
| NYMEX Nat. Gas Price ($per Million BTUs) | NA | NA | NA | NA | $1.66 | $2.11 | $2.43 | $2.47 | $2.05 | $2.86 | $5.41 | $2.84 | $4.80 | $5.55 | $6.57 | $9.28 | $7.06 | $8.47 | $5.91 | $4.44 | $4.20 | $3.10 | $3.48 | $4.18 | $3.34 | $2.91 | $3.05 | $3.28 | $3.62 | $3.95 | $4.24 | $4.48 | $4.58 | $4.70 | $4.82 | $4.94 | $5.07 | $5.21 | $5.34 | $5.48 | $5.62 | $5.77 | $5.92 | $6.07 | $6.23 | $6.39 | $6.56 | $6.73 | $6.90 | $7.08 | $7.27 | $7.46 | $7.65 | $7.85 | $8.05 |
| U. S. ECONOMY | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gross U.S. Product (Billion FY2009 Dollars ) | 8,921.2 | 9,169.0 | 9,459.3 | 9,805.7 | 10,117.6 | 10,446.5 | 10,917.1 | 11,385.8 | 11,927.8 | 12,470.7 | 12,675.8 | 12,844.1 | 13,129.9 | 13,668.1 | 14,128.5 | 14,527.9 | 14,805.0 | 14,934.1 | 14,427.5 | 14,684.5 | 14,957.8 | 15,306.1 | 15,489.0 | 15,864.2 | 16,238.4 | 16,651.7 | 17,137.6 | 17,588.9 | 18,052.7 | 18,518.0 | 18,964.6 | 19,405.7 | 19,843.5 | 20,287.8 | 20,721.4 | 21,158.1 | 21,637.1 | 22,101.3 | 22,589.0 | 23,087.9 | 23,590.2 | 24,100.6 | 24,632.3 | 25,174.2 | 25,727.1 | 26,288.8 | 26,860.0 | 27,456.6 | 28,059.6 | 28,683.7 | 29,292.8 | 29,934.9 | 30,600.5 | 31,266.8 | 31,951.6 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross Domestic Product | -0.6 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | -3.4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) | 135.2 | 139.2 | 143.5 | 147.3 | 151.4 | 155.6 | 159.8 | 162.4 | 165.5 | 170.7 | 176.2 | 178.9 | 183.1 | 187.3 | 193.5 | 200.6 | 205.3 | 214.4 | 213.8 | 217.4 | 223.1 | 228.5 | 232.3 | 236.0 | 236.8 | 239.7 | 245.2 | 251.6 | 257.8 | 263.2 | 268.9 | 275.7 | 283.0 | 290.3 | 297.4 | 304.3 | 311.2 | 318.2 | 325.4 | 332.6 | 340.3 | 348.2 | 356.2 | 364.6 | 373.2 | 381.9 | 390.8 | 400.1 | 409.8 | 419.8 | 430.0 | 440.5 | 451.3 | 462.5 | 473.9 |
| Annual Percent Change for Consumer Price Index | 5.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 4.4 | -0.3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Prime Interest Rate (%) | 9.1 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 |
Source: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts and IHS Global Insight, Inc.