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Forecast Summary
Texas Economic Forecast 2015-16
Forecast Summary
Calendar Years 1990—2045
| Year | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042; | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross State Product (Billion CY2009 Dollars) | 602.5 | 609.3 | 635.8 | 662.8 | 695.5 | 719.0 | 756.9 | 815.2 | 874.1 | 911.4 | 944.5 | 969.1 | 984.2 | 990.3 | 1,038.8 | 1,057.9 | 1,118.2 | 1,166.9 | 1,172.9 | 1,168.9 | 1,201.1 | 1,245.7 | 1,323.2 | 1,395.4 | 1,467.3 | 1,499.0 | 1,531.7 | 1,577.6 | 1,633.7 | 1,689.5 | 1,749.6 | 1,809.1 | 1,857.9 | 1,915.1 | 1,975.2 | 2,032.0 | 2,098.4 | 2,167.0 | 2,237.3 | 2,309.0 | 2,382.8 | 2,458.5 | 2,536.9 | 2,616.0 | 2,696.6 | 2,782.6 | 2,871.4 | 2,963.3 | 3,056.7 | 3,153.8 | 3,254.5 | 3,358.3 | 3,466.3 | 3,578.2 | 3,692.0 | 3,809.0 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross State Product (Billion CY2009 Dollars) | 3.5 | 1.1 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 0.5 | -0.3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Gross State Product (Billion Current Dollars) | 391.2 | 405.4 | 430.2 | 459.3 | 489.6 | 517.9 | 560.5 | 613.5 | 653.5 | 691.4 | 752.0 | 787.7 | 801.2 | 844.4 | 922.8 | 999.6 | 1,094.1 | 1,179.1 | 1,242.3 | 1,168.9 | 1,247.6 | 1,350.8 | 1,449.4 | 1,557.2 | 1,648.0 | 1,645.3 | 1,710.1 | 1,795.7 | 1,893.8 | 1,998.0 | 2,110.1 | 2,225.8 | 2,332.3 | 2,452.1 | 2,577.7 | 2,704.6 | 2,844.5 | 2,990.1 | 3,141.8 | 3,300.0 | 3,465.7 | 3,640.1 | 3,822.2 | 4,009.8 | 4,204.6 | 4,411.1 | 4,626.9 | 4,852.7 | 5,086.8 | 5,332.8 | 5,590.4 | 5,859.6 | 6,142.8 | 6,439.6 | 6,746.7 | 7,066.3 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross State Product (Billion Current Dollars) | 8.8 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 5.4 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 5.4 | -5.9 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 |
| Personal Income (Billion Current Dollars) | 296.1 | 309.8 | 335.1 | 354.6 | 374.9 | 401.1 | 431.1 | 469.7 | 513.3 | 543.1 | 593.6 | 632.9 | 636.6 | 661.5 | 696.0 | 756.3 | 828.5 | 878.5 | 963.7 | 916.3 | 961.0 | 1,051.7 | 1,127.7 | 1,160.1 | 1,223.9 | 1,275.0 | 1,341.1 | 1,424.4 | 1,510.6 | 1,601.1 | 1,697.4 | 1,792.1 | 1,882.3 | 1,987.0 | 2,095.0 | 2,206.7 | 2,329.0 | 2,460.1 | 2,596.9 | 2,740.8 | 2,895.1 | 3,058.1 | 3,230.3 | 3,411.9 | 3,604.8 | 3,810.7 | 4,027.1 | 4,254.9 | 4,495.4 | 4,752.0 | 5,025.2 | 5,310.5 | 5,615.0 | 5,941.1 | 6,285.1 | 6,651.4 |
| Annual Percent Change for Personal Income | 8.5 | 4.6 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 0.6 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 9.7 | -4.9 | 4.9 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) | 7,098.6 | 7,177.9 | 7,272.4 | 7,485.0 | 7,755.2 | 8,027.0 | 8,260.8 | 8,611.8 | 8,940.1 | 9,157.0 | 9,429.1 | 9,511.7 | 9,413.5 | 9,368.0 | 9,493.4 | 9,736.9 | 10,062.7 | 10,392.9 | 10,607.4 | 10,305.7 | 10,338.2 | 10,569.4 | 10,879.1 | 11,206.7 | 11,551.3 | 11,815.8 | 12,025.2 | 12,262.6 | 12,531.1 | 12,780.1 | 13,035.5 | 13,271.0 | 13,447.4 | 13,680.2 | 13,912.7 | 14,137.0 | 14,374.6 | 14,623.3 | 14,870.3 | 15,119.0 | 15,382.2 | 15,633.0 | 15,893.5 | 16,154.1 | 16,411.1 | 16,681.2 | 16,956.3 | 17,236.0 | 17,510.9 | 17,798.2 | 18,099.8 | 18,385.5 | 18,687.0 | 18,996.1 | 19,305.4 | 19,618.0 |
| Annual Percent Change for Nonfarm Employment | 3.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | -1.0 | -0.5 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.1 | -2.8 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Resident Population (Thousands) | 17,104.7 | 17,443.9 | 17,811.8 | 18,211.3 | 18,612.3 | 19,005.0 | 19,390.9 | 19,792.9 | 20,206.0 | 20,606.2 | 20,991.1 | 21,365.2 | 21,730.6 | 22,077.3 | 22,442.9 | 22,897.2 | 23,426.0 | 23,891.2 | 24,370.9 | 24,856.8 | 25,298.0 | 25,713.3 | 26,143.7 | 26,564.0 | 27,013.1 | 27,461.0 | 27,910.9 | 28,397.4 | 28,886.7 | 29,370.5 | 29,866.7 | 30,365.7 | 30,857.6 | 31,338.2 | 31,827.7 | 32,334.3 | 32,848.7 | 33,368.3 | 33,889.6 | 34,411.1 | 34,932.1 | 35,452.8 | 35,975.5 | 36,499.7 | 37,023.2 | 37,547.4 | 38,075.8 | 38,608.9 | 39,145.1 | 39,683.8 | 40,223.4 | 40,765.4 | 41,314.0 | 41,867.6 | 42,425.9 | 42,989.9 |
| Annual Percent Change for Resident Population | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.4 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
| NYMEX Oil Price ($per Barrel) | $21.37 | $24.71 | $20.60 | $19.26 | $16.96 | $18.55 | $20.50 | $21.29 | $15.88 | $17.47 | $28.30 | $28.27 | $24.73 | $30.89 | $37.89 | $54.85 | $64.45 | $73.82 | $94.69 | $64.30 | $80.37 | $92.80 | $94.00 | $96.76 | $93.59 | $59.06 | $50.13 | $57.71 | $61.14 | $63.63 | $67.30 | $72.72 | $75.18 | $77.94 | $80.79 | $83.75 | $86.81 | $89.99 | $93.29 | $96.70 | $100.24 | $103.91 | $107.71 | $111.65 | $115.74 | $119.98 | $124.36 | $128.91 | $133.63 | $138.52 | $143.60 | $148.85 | $154.30 | $159.95 | $165.80 | $171.87 |
| NYMEX Nat. Gas Price ($per Million BTUs) | NA | NA | NA | NA | $1.95 | $1.69 | $2.51 | $2.47 | $2.16 | $2.31 | $4.31 | $4.03 | $3.36 | $5.50 | $6.19 | $9.00 | $6.99 | $7.12 | $8.90 | $4.16 | $4.40 | $4.03 | $2.82 | $3.73 | $4.28 | $2.79 | $3.00 | $3.10 | $3.45 | $3.80 | $4.10 | $4.38 | $4.58 | $4.69 | $4.81 | $4.94 | $5.06 | $5.20 | $5.33 | $5.47 | $5.61 | $5.76 | $5.91 | $6.06 | $6.22 | $6.38 | $6.55 | $6.72 | $6.89 | $7.07 | $7.25 | $7.44 | $7.64 | $7.83 | $8.04 | $8.25 |
| U. S. ECONOMY | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gross Domestic Product (Billion CY2009 Dollars ) | 8,955.0 | 8,948.4 | 9,266.6 | 9,521.0 | 9,905.5 | 10,174.8 | 10,561.0 | 11,034.9 | 11,525.9 | 12,065.9 | 12,559.7 | 12,682.3 | 12,908.8 | 13,271.1 | 13,773.5 | 14,234.3 | 14,613.8 | 14,873.8 | 14,830.4 | 14,418.8 | 14,783.8 | 15,020.6 | 15,354.6 | 15,583.3 | 15,961.7 | 16,320.5 | 16,772.9 | 17,249.8 | 17,704.2 | 18,169.3 | 18,631.5 | 19,076.2 | 19,513.3 | 19,956.1 | 20,396.4 | 20,830.1 | 21,273.8 | 21,752.9 | 22,222.5 | 22,713.1 | 23,212.1 | 23,717.0 | 24,232.0 | 24,767.2 | 25,311.8 | 25,866.6 | 26,428.8 | 27,009.6 | 27,603.7 | 28,217.6 | 28,831.9 | 29,453.7 | 30,099.5 | 30,766.9 | 31,435.4 | 32,125.3 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross Domestic Product | 1.8 | -0.1 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.8 | -0.3 | -2.8 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) | 131.0 | 136.0 | 140.0 | 144.0 | 148.0 | 152.0 | 157.0 | 161.0 | 163.0 | 167.0 | 172.0 | 177.0 | 180.0 | 184.0 | 189.0 | 195.0 | 202.0 | 207.0 | 215.0 | 215.0 | 218.0 | 225.0 | 230.0 | 233.0 | 237.0 | 237.0 | 241.0 | 247.0 | 253.0 | 259.0 | 264.0 | 271.0 | 278.0 | 285.0 | 292.0 | 299.0 | 306.0 | 313.0 | 320.0 | 327.0 | 334.0 | 342.0 | 350.0 | 358.0 | 367.0 | 375.0 | 384.0 | 393.0 | 402.0 | 412.0 | 422.0 | 433.0 | 443.0 | 454.0 | 465.0 | 477.0 |
| Annual Percent Change for Consumer Price Index | 5.4 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| Prime Interest Rate (%) | 10.0 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 |
Source: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts and IHS Global Insight, Inc.