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Economic Summary
Texas Economic Forecast 2012-13
Economic Summary
Fiscal Years 1991—2041
| Year | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross State Product (Billion FY2005 Dollars) |
558.0 | 579.0 | 606.3 | 635.5 | 662.4 | 688.9 | 740.1 | 789.5 | 828.4 | 862.6 | 887.4 | 909.5 | 909.7 | 954.9 | 967.1 | 1,001.7 | 1,058.2 | 1,084.2 | 1,054.4 | 1,099.0 | 1,141.2 | 1,177.1 | 1,217.3 | 1,259.3 | 1,308.5 | 1,357.3 | 1,408.3 | 1,459.9 | 1,510.0 | 1,560.9 | 1,610.9 | 1,659.3 | 1,707.6 | 1,759.2 | 1,815.8 | 1,875.3 | 1,937.2 | 2,000.9 | 2,067.1 | 2,136.6 | 2,208.0 | 2,278.4 | 2,350.2 | 2,425.6 | 2,505.8 | 2,589.9 | 2,676.4 | 2,763.9 | 2,851.9 | 2,942.0 | 3,031.8 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross State Product (Billion FY2005 Dollars) |
1.5 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | -2.8 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
| Gross State Product (Billion Current Dollars) |
392.8 | 413.4 | 443.3 | 472.2 | 501.1 | 537.5 | 590.2 | 626.1 | 660.1 | 716.7 | 758.0 | 777.3 | 809.1 | 884.5 | 951.2 | 1,032.9 | 1,122.3 | 1,209.3 | 1,140.2 | 1,194.0 | 1,287.6 | 1,362.9 | 1,433.7 | 1,510.4 | 1,597.9 | 1,685.9 | 1,777.2 | 1,872.0 | 1,962.4 | 2,058.8 | 2,158.5 | 2,259.0 | 2,361.2 | 2,470.6 | 2,589.3 | 2,714.9 | 2,846.7 | 2,984.0 | 3,128.3 | 3,281.1 | 3,441.4 | 3,603.1 | 3,769.4 | 3,945.7 | 4,133.4 | 4,330.6 | 4,535.6 | 4,746.7 | 4,963.1 | 5,186.8 | 5,413.8 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross State Product (Billion Current Dollars) |
4.9 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 7.8 | -5.7 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| Personal Income (Billion Current Dollars) |
304.9 | 326.3 | 348.0 | 368.2 | 394.0 | 422.1 | 459.5 | 501.9 | 533.6 | 585.3 | 618.3 | 625.2 | 644.6 | 683.7 | 740.7 | 808.4 | 867.3 | 952.6 | 919.8 | 944.5 | 1,017.7 | 1,065.8 | 1,122.6 | 1,179.9 | 1,243.0 | 1,307.4 | 1,370.9 | 1,441.2 | 1,516.5 | 1,597.7 | 1,680.0 | 1,763.7 | 1,852.2 | 1,943.1 | 2,041.6 | 2,144.7 | 2,253.1 | 2,367.8 | 2,487.9 | 2,615.6 | 2,750.0 | 2,890.0 | 3,035.5 | 3,190.0 | 3,355.6 | 3,531.2 | 3,715.1 | 3,907.4 | 4,107.4 | 4,316.4 | 4,536.4 |
| Annual Percent Change for Personal Income |
6.3 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 9.8 | -3.4 | 2.7 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) |
7,170.9 | 7,241.0 | 7,430.7 | 7,677.4 | 7,971.4 | 8,196.6 | 8,523.9 | 8,865.6 | 9,110.2 | 9,366.3 | 9,531.7 | 9,427.2 | 9,376.3 | 9,448.9 | 9,666.8 | 9,983.6 | 10,311.1 | 10,581.3 | 10,400.1 | 10,288.2 | 10,504.1 | 10,736.0 | 10,967.5 | 11,202.2 | 11,467.8 | 11,743.9 | 12,011.8 | 12,252.9 | 12,475.0 | 12,696.0 | 12,891.8 | 13,089.9 | 13,279.3 | 13,459.3 | 13,655.3 | 13,858.7 | 14,076.2 | 14,300.9 | 14,522.3 | 14,755.6 | 14,979.2 | 15,210.2 | 15,437.1 | 15,669.0 | 15,914.1 | 16,168.9 | 16,433.7 | 16,704.5 | 16,975.3 | 17,255.9 | 17,523.7 |
| Annual Percent Change for Nonfarm Employment |
1.9 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.8 | -1.1 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.6 | -1.7 | -1.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Resident Population (Thousands) |
17,356.1 | 17,716.4 | 18,110.7 | 18,512.6 | 18,908.0 | 19,293.2 | 19,690.7 | 20,103.7 | 20,514.8 | 20,935.6 | 21,271.9 | 21,641.6 | 21,989.3 | 22,349.5 | 22,744.2 | 23,326.6 | 23,772.5 | 24,249.6 | 24,737.5 | 25,197.2 | 25,622.3 | 26,025.6 | 26,380.2 | 26,825.9 | 27,269.3 | 27,699.9 | 28,132.0 | 28,573.5 | 29,030.1 | 29,501.1 | 29,981.3 | 30,467.4 | 30,956.6 | 31,444.2 | 31,933.1 | 32,426.0 | 32,922.4 | 33,418.5 | 33,915.6 | 34,414.9 | 34,916.5 | 35,426.8 | 35,948.5 | 36,477.1 | 37,013.1 | 37,556.2 | 38,105.5 | 38,660.3 | 39,218.7 | 39,779.8 | 40,344.1 |
| Annual Percent Change for Resident Population |
1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) |
6.9 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| Taxable Oil Price ($per Barrel) |
$23.01 | $18.61 | $17.95 | $14.68 | $16.22 | $17.86 | $20.59 | $15.12 | $12.91 | $25.16 | $27.73 | $21.91 | $28.61 | $32.51 | $46.92 | $61.19 | $59.13 | $98.89 | $59.99 | $72.75 | $87.91 | $91.96 | $85.00 | $82.18 | $80.33 | $82.24 | $90.02 | $97.34 | $102.67 | $107.04 | $110.42 | $113.73 | $117.14 | $120.65 | $124.39 | $127.19 | $128.65 | $129.94 | $131.24 | $132.55 | $133.88 | $135.21 | $136.57 | $137.94 | $139.31 | $140.71 | $142.12 | $143.53 | $144.97 | $146.42 | $147.89 |
| Taxable Nat. Gas Price ($per Mcf) |
$1.43 | $1.36 | $1.74 | $1.76 | $1.42 | $1.60 | $2.07 | $2.00 | $1.71 | $2.63 | $4.93 | $2.48 | $4.18 | $4.77 | $5.79 | $7.54 | $6.17 | $7.47 | $5.11 | $3.91 | $4.09 | $3.51 | $3.10 | $3.68 | $4.04 | $4.19 | $4.22 | $4.36 | $4.40 | $4.45 | $4.72 | $4.80 | $4.97 | $5.16 | $5.33 | $5.44 | $5.42 | $5.53 | $5.68 | $6.01 | $6.11 | $6.20 | $6.40 | $6.67 | $6.95 | $7.20 | $7.41 | $7.60 | $7.79 | $7.99 | $8.19 |
| U.S. ECONOMY | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gross U.S. Product (Billion FY2005 Dollars) |
7,988.3 | 8,193.1 | 8,459.5 | 8,773.4 | 9,040.8 | 9,323.9 | 9,741.9 | 10,150.2 | 10,644.1 | 11,136.4 | 11,326.2 | 11,488.0 | 11,724.4 | 12,159.8 | 12,535.9 | 12,882.8 | 13,134.5 | 13,272.6 | 12,760.6 | 12,986.0 | 13,234.2 | 13,522.6 | 13,746.6 | 14,107.3 | 14,592.0 | 15,023.8 | 15,431.2 | 15,812.1 | 16,197.6 | 16,600.9 | 17,010.5 | 17,434.5 | 17,978.0 | 18,464.7 | 18,938.2 | 19,413.2 | 19,900.2 | 20,397.6 | 20,904.2 | 21,439.0 | 21,985.5 | 22,538.2 | 23,094.0 | 23,673.8 | 24,279.5 | 24,909.1 | 25,554.8 | 26,207.2 | 26,863.1 | 27,535.9 | 28,237.8 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross Domestic Product |
-0.6 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | -3.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Consumer Price Index (1982-84=100) |
135.2 | 139.2 | 143.5 | 147.3 | 151.4 | 155.6 | 159.8 | 162.4 | 165.5 | 170.7 | 176.2 | 178.9 | 183.1 | 187.3 | 193.5 | 200.6 | 205.3 | 214.4 | 213.8 | 217.4 | 223.1 | 228.5 | 231.7 | 235.5 | 239.6 | 243.9 | 248.6 | 253.5 | 258.5 | 263.5 | 268.7 | 274.0 | 279.4 | 285.0 | 290.6 | 296.4 | 302.3 | 308.3 | 314.5 | 320.8 | 327.5 | 334.2 | 341.0 | 348.1 | 355.3 | 362.7 | 370.3 | 378.1 | 386.0 | 394.2 | 402.5 |
| Annual Percent Change for Consumer Price Index |
5.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 4.4 | -0.3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Prime Interest Rate (%) |
9.1 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
Source: Susan Combs, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, and IHS Global Insight, Inc.