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Certification Revenue Estimate 2018-19, Revised July 2018Table 4: Texas Economic History and Outlook for Fiscal Years 2010 to 2019
July 2018 Forecast
| Measure | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017* | 2018* | 2019* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEXAS ECONOMY | ||||||||||
| Real Gross State Product (Billion 2009 $) | $1,189 | $1,225 | $1,292 | $1,363 | $1,409 | $1,483 | $1,482 | $1,504 | $1,572 | $1,638 |
| Annual percent change | 1.7% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% |
| Nominal Gross State Product (Billion $) | $1,222 | $1,318 | $1,414 | $1,513 | $1,598 | $1,620 | $1,595 | $1,665 | $1,793 | $1,907 |
| Annual percent change | 4.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 1.4% | (1.6%) | 4.4% | 7.7% | 6.3% |
| Personal Income (Billion $) | $939 | $1,026 | $1,102 | $1,147 | $1,211 | $1,279 | $1,289 | $1,314 | $1,374 | $1,461 |
| Annual percent change | 1.9% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 4.6% | 6.4% |
| Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) | 10,323 | 10,546 | 10,824 | 11,164 | 11,492 | 11,820 | 11,974 | 12,163 | 12,456 | 12,771 |
| Annual percent change | (1.1%) | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% |
| Resident Population (Thousands) | 25,190 | 25,596 | 26,022 | 26,434 | 26,897 | 27,389 | 27,845 | 28,255 | 28,669 | 29,103 |
| Annual percent change | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Unemployment Rate (Percent) | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% |
| NYMEX Oil Price ($per Barrel) | $76.32 | $91.25 | $94.28 | $93.65 | $101.05 | $64.94 | $41.40 | $48.77 | $60.00 | $64.00 |
| NYMEX Natural Gas Price ($per Million BTUs) | $4.43 | $4.20 | $3.10 | $3.48 | $4.18 | $3.34 | $2.26 | $2.99 | $2.85 | $2.90 |
| U.S. ECONOMY | ||||||||||
| Real Gross Domestic Product (Billion 2009 $) | $14,685 | $14,958 | $15,306 | $15,510 | $15,907 | $16,390 | $16,640 | $16,987 | $17,458 | $17,965 |
| Annual percent change | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% |
| Consumer Price Index (1982-84=100) | 217.4 | 223.1 | 228.5 | 232.2 | 236.0 | 236.7 | 238.9 | 243.9 | 249.4 | 254.3 |
| Annual percent change | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures Deflator (2009=100) | 101.3 | 103.5 | 105.7 | 107.2 | 108.8 | 109.4 | 110.3 | 112.2 | 114.2 | 116.2 |
| Annual percent change | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% |
| Prime Interest Rate (Percent) | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% |
*Estimated or projected
Sources: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts; and IHS Markit