Glenn Hegar
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
Glenn Hegar
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
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Glenn Hegar
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
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economy

FiscalNotes

A Review of the Texas Economy

Translation:

A Storm to Remember:
Hurricane Harvey and the Texas Economy

Endnotes

Note: Endnote links were accurate at the time of publication.

  1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, “Hurricane Harvey & Its Impacts on Southeast Texas from August 25th to 29th, 2017;” and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, “Hurricane Harvey 2017 – Impacts to South Central Texas.”
  2. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Reviewing Hurricane Harvey’s Catastrophic Rain and Flooding,” September 18, 2017.
  3. Texas Division of Emergency Management, Disaster Summary Outline spreadsheets for November 28, 2017 and November 29, 2017.
  4. Texas Department of Motor Vehicles, “TxDMV Informs Owners of Flood-Damaged Vehicles of Duty to Brand Their Title,” October 23, 2017; and Business Insider, “The Auto Industry May Take Longer Than Expected to Recover After Hurricane Harvey,” December 16, 2017.
  5. Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service, “Texas Agricultural Losses from Hurricane Harvey Estimated at More Than $200 Million,” October 27, 2017.
  6. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters,” 2017; and Kevin Quealy, “The Cost of Hurricane Harvey: Only One Recent Storm Comes Close,” The New York Times (September 1, 2017).
  7. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters.”
  8. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Hurricanes in History,”; and “U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters.”
  9. U.S. National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, Tropical Cyclone Report, Hurricane Katrina (PDF), 23-30 August 2005, by Richard D. Knabb et al., Updated September 14, 2011, p. 11,
  10. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters.”
  11. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Hurricanes in History.”
  12. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather & Climate Disasters, 1980-2017,” (PDF) by Adam Smith et al., p. 8; and “Hurricanes in History.”
  13. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather & Climate Disasters 1980-2017,” p. 7; and “Hurricanes in History.”
  14. National Hurricane Center, Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Sandy (PDF), 22 – 29 October 2012, by Eric S. Blake et al. (February 2013), pp. 13 and 82.
  15. National Hurricane Center, Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Sandy, 22 – 29 October 2012, p. 17.
  16. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather & Climate Disasters,” p. 4.
  17. Alana Semuels, “How a Disaster’s Economic Impacts Are Calculated: Providing an Early Estimate of a Storm’s Costs is Generally a Pretty Rough Science, and Harvey is a Particularly Tough Case,” The Atlantic (August 29, 2017).
  18. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, “Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.”
  19. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, “Texas Businesses Feel Impact of Hurricane Harvey on Revenue, Production,” September 25, 2017.
  20. Calculated using REMI, reducing capital stock by reported residential and non-residential losses and comparing standard regional control projection, leaving optimal capital stock unchanged.
  21. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis statistics on GDP by state, current dollars, all industries, for Texas.
  22. The overall gain is measured in GSP years and calculated by taking the sum of the difference in GSP between the standard regional control and the forecast for each year of the analysis.
  23. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, “Texas Economy Finishes the Year Firing on All Cylinders,” by Christopher Slijk and Keith Phillips, December 20, 2017.
  24. Harris County, All Hazard Mitigation Plan (PDF), Section 1, p. 1.
  25. Ella Nilsen, “The National Flood Insurance Program was Already $24 Billion in Debt before Harvey and Irma,” Vox (September 11, 2017).
  26. Neena Satija and Kiah Collier, “Documents Detail Concerns about Houston Dams — Before Harvey,” Texas Tribune (September 28, 2017).
  27. Gulf Coast Community Protection and Recovery District, Storm Surge Suppression Study Phase 3 Report: Recommended Actions (PDF) p. 6.
  28. Harvey Rice, “George P. Bush Emerges as Ike Dike Champion,” Houston Chronicle (March 20, 2017).
  29. Neena Satija, Kiah Collier and Al Shaw, “Boomtown, Flood Town,” Texas Tribune (December 7, 2016).
  30. Dylan Baddour, “How to Fix the Houston Floods,” Houston Chronicle (January 3, 2017).
  31. David Schaper, “3 Reasons Houston was a ‘Sitting Duck’ for Harvey Flooding,” National Public Radio, August 31, 2017.
  32. Neena Satija and Kiah Collier, “Houston’s ‘Flood Czar’ Says Harvey Has Brought the City to a Decision Point on Flood Control,” Texas Tribune (September 13, 2017).
  33. “Hurricane Harvey Shows Need to Use More Green Infrastructure,” Civil + Structural Engineer (September 21, 2017).
  34. Natasha Geiling, “Harvey is an Unprecedented Disaster Made Worse by Poor Planning,” Think Progress (August 28, 2017).
  35. Neena Satija, Kiah Collier and Al Shaw, “Boomtown, Flood Town.”
  36. Ford Fessenden, Robert Gebeloff, Mary Williams Walsh and Troy Griggs, “Water Damage From Hurricane Harvey Extended Far Beyond Flood Zones,” New York Times (September 1, 2017) .
  37. Neena Satija, Kiah Collier and Al Shaw, “Boomtown, Flood Town.”
  38. Ella Nilsen, “The National Flood Insurance Program Was Already $24 Billion in Debt Before Harvey and Irma.”
  39. Benjamin Powell and Phil Magness, “Here’s the Best Way to Limit the Risk of ‘Widespread’ Hurricane Damage,” CNBC (September 11, 2017).
  40. National Weather Service, The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Tropical Cyclones from 1851 to 2010 (PDF), by Eric S Blake et al., (Miami, Florida, August 2011), p. 15.
  41. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Continental United States Hurricane Impacts/Landfalls 1851-2016.”
  42. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Tropical Cyclone Climatology.”
  43. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “The Galveston Hurricane of 1900: Remembering the Deadliest Natural Disaster in American History” ; and National Weather Service, Texas Hurricane History (PDF), by David Roth (Camp Springs, Maryland, January 2010), p. 31.
  44. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Continental United States Hurricane Impacts/Landfalls 1851-2016.”
  45. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters.”
  46. Productivity loss was calculated with a percent decrease while rebuilding gains were calculated with dollar amounts available at the time of the study.
  47. Federal Emergency Management Agency, “Texas Hurricane Harvey (DR-4332),” December 4, 2017. Forty-one counties were declared disaster areas: Aransas, Austin, Bastrop, Bee, Brazoria, Caldwell, Calhoun, Chambers, Colorado, DeWitt, Fayette, Fort Bend, Galveston, Goliad, Gonzales, Grimes, Hardin, Harris, Jackson, Jasper, Jefferson, Karnes, Kleberg, Lavaca, Lee, Liberty, Matagorda, Montgomery, Newton, Nueces, Orange, Polk, Refugio, Sabine, San Jacinto, San Patricio, Tyler, Victoria, Walker, Waller and Wharton.
  48. Texas Department of Public Safety, Texas Division of Emergency Management, “State Situation Report, Tropical System Harvey,” Report Number 3, August 25, 2017, and Report Number 8, August 30, 2017; and “Harvey Timeline: See How the Storm Developed and Marched Across Texas and Louisiana,” Corpus Christi Caller-Times (September 7, 2017).
  49. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, “Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey,” September 25, 2017. The average number of days businesses were either completely shut down or experienced a reduction in revenue/production is 15.4. Because 59 percent of firms that experienced a reduction in revenue or production reported ongoing reductions, it is assumed that productivity losses continuing beyond the date of the survey are counterbalanced by the 41 percent of firms that did not experience reduced revenue/production.
  50. Andrea Hsu and Becky Sullivan, “In Houston, Most Hospitals ‘Up And Fully Functional,’” All Things Considered, National Public Radio (August 30, 2017). Although some hospitals were evacuated, many remained operational or entered “ride-out” mode in which outpatient services were postposed while inpatient services continued; only four days are assumed for disruption in service.
  51. Industries are assumed to compete locally because goods and services could be obtained from neighboring counties that were not affected by the storm; this is thus a more conservative estimate. Some industries, however, were disproportionately affected because of the high number of businesses located in Texas relative to the nation. These categories in the North American Industry Classification System with a high location quotient, a measure of industrial concentration, are treated differently: 211 Oil and Gas Extraction, 213 Support Activities for Mining and 486 Pipeline Transportation had an LQ > 4 for Texas and were considered industry-level (exogenous) production.
  52. A discount rate of .277 was applied to 42 Wholesale Trade and 44-45 Retail Trade as prescribed by experts at REMI, Inc.
  53. The amount of funds flowing through the state of Texas are being updated as new costs are incurred and new information is received. The figures presented were determined by the best data available as of Nov. 30, 2017.
  54. David Hunn, “FEMA on Track to Pay $11 Billion in Hurricane Harvey Insurance Claims,” Houston Chronicle (September 13, 2017).
  55. “SBA Has Approved $1B-Plus in Harvey-related Disaster Loans,” Houston Chronicle (October 11, 2017).
  56. “ICT Pegs Hurricane Harvey Insured Losses at $19B,” Insurance Journal (September 15, 2017).
  57. Morgan Smith, “How Much Has Been Raised for Harvey Relief — and How’s It Being Spent?” Texas Tribune (October 6, 2017).
  58. Construction is spread by individual industry and output. Equipment is spread by population. Consumer spending is spread by commodity and consumption across these categories: new motor vehicles, net purchase of used motor vehicles, motor vehicle parts and accessories, furniture and furnishings, household appliances, glassware, tableware and household utensils, tools and equipment for house and garden, food and nonalcoholic beverages purchased for off-premises consumption, alcoholic beverages purchased for off-premises consumption, food produced and consumed on farms, men and boys’ clothing, women and girls’ clothing, children and infants’ clothing, other clothing materials and footwear, motor fuels, lubricants and fluids, fuel oil and other fuels, pharmaceutical and other medical products, household supplies, personal care products, rental of tenant-occupied nonfarm housing, group housing, physician services, dental services, paramedical services, hospitals, nursing homes, other motor vehicle services, purchased meals and beverages, accommodations, personal care and clothing services, social services and religious activities and household maintenance.
  59. For example, on Nov. 17, 2017, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development announced it would award $5.024 billion in community development block grants for hard-hit areas in Texas; the expenditure timeline was unknown at the time of publication, however, and therefore is not included in this study. See “HUD Provides $5 Billion To Help Texas Recover From Harvey,” Office of the Texas Governor, November 17, 2017.

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