This analysis predates the COVID-19 crisis and the economic impacts that followed. It is offered as an overview of the High Plains regional economy and a resource for comparative purposes.
The 41-county High Plains region covers about 39,500 square miles in north Texas, stretching from the Oklahoma state line in the east and north and the New Mexico state line in the west to the Lubbock metropolitan area in the south.
The High Plains region includes two metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs): the Amarillo MSA, comprising Armstrong, Carson, Oldham, Potter and Randall counties, and the Lubbock MSA, comprising Crosby, Lubbock and Lynn counties.
The region’s counties not associated with an MSA include Bailey, Briscoe, Castro, Childress, Cochran, Collingsworth, Dallam, Deaf Smith, Dickens, Donley, Floyd, Garza, Gray, Hale, Hall, Hansford, Hartley, Hemphill, Hockley, Hutchinson, King, Lamb, Lipscomb, Moore, Motley, Ochiltree, Parmer, Roberts, Sherman, Swisher, Terry, Wheeler and Yoakum counties.
This report examines regional economic trends including population, household income, jobs and wages, and education, as well as economic conditions unique to the High Plains region.
Population
In 2019, the High Plains region’s estimated total population was 872,000, or about 3 percent of the state’s total population. This represents an increase of 3.9 percent (about 33,000 people) since the 2010 Census. An estimated 35.6 percent of the region’s population is concentrated in Lubbock County. The Lubbock MSA accounted for 37 percent of the region’s population and about 1 percent of the state’s population.
From 2010 to 2019, the region’s population grew at a slower pace than the state as a whole (Exhibit 1). While 32 of the 41 counties’ populations decreased, others rose during this period. Randall County’s population growth outpaced all others, rising by 14.1 percent, about on par with the state.
Exhibit 1
High Plains Region Population by County,
2010 and 2019
County
2010 Census
Estimate
(as of July 2019)
Change 2010 to 2019
Percent Change
Armstrong
1,901
1,887
-14
-0.7%
Bailey
7,165
7,000
-165
-2.3%
Briscoe
1,637
1,546
-91
-5.6%
Carson
6,182
5,926
-256
-4.1%
Castro
8,062
7,530
-532
-6.6%
Childress
7,041
7,306
265
3.8%
Cochran
3,127
2,853
-274
-8.8%
Collingsworth
3,057
2,920
-137
-4.5%
Crosby
6,059
5,737
-322
-5.3%
Dallam
6,703
7,287
584
8.7%
Deaf Smith
19,372
18,546
-826
-4.3%
Dickens
2,444
2,211
-233
-9.5%
Donley
3,677
3,278
-399
-10.9%
Floyd
6,446
5,712
-734
-11.4%
Garza
6,461
6,229
-232
-3.6%
Gray
22,535
21,886
-649
-2.9%
Hale
36,273
33,406
-2,867
-7.9%
Hall
3,353
2,964
-389
-11.6%
Hansford
5,613
5,399
-214
-3.8%
Hartley
6,062
5,576
-486
-8.0%
Hemphill
3,807
3,819
12
0.3%
Hockley
22,935
23,021
86
0.4%
Hutchinson
22,150
20,938
-1,212
-5.5%
King
286
272
-14
-4.9%
Lamb
13,977
12,893
-1,084
-7.8%
Lipscomb
3,302
3,233
-69
-2.1%
Lubbock
278,831
310,569
31,738
11.4%
Lynn
5,915
5,951
36
0.6%
Moore
21,904
20,940
-964
-4.4%
Motley
1,210
1,200
-10
-0.8%
Ochiltree
10,223
9,836
-387
-3.8%
Oldham
2,052
2,112
60
2.9%
Parmer
10,269
9,605
-664
-6.5%
Potter
121,073
117,415
-3,658
-3.0%
Randall
120,725
137,713
16,988
14.1%
Roberts
929
854
-75
-8.1%
Sherman
3,034
3,022
-12
-0.4%
Swisher
7,854
7,397
-457
-5.8%
Terry
12,651
12,337
-314
-2.5%
Wheeler
5,410
5,056
-354
-6.5%
Yoakum
7,879
8,713
834
10.6%
Amarillo MSA
251,933
265,053
13,120
5.2%
Lubbock MSA
290,805
322,257
31,452
10.8%
High Plains Region Total
839,586
872,095
32,509
3.9%
Texas Total
25,145,561
28,995,881
3,850,320
15.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Population Composition
According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2018 American Community Survey, the High Plains region’s median age is on par with the state. In 2018, only 19 of the region’s 41 counties had median ages significantly higher than the state median of 34.2 years; Motley was the “oldest” county in the region, with a median age approaching 49. On the other hand, five counties had median ages significantly lower than the state’s, including Lubbock, the region’s most populous county, with a median age of 30.6. The Amarillo MSA had a median age on par with the state, while the Lubbock MSA was significantly “younger.”
More than 36 percent of the region’s total population was Hispanic in 2018, 2.1 percent less than the state’s 38.6 percent share (Exhibit 2).
Household Income
The High Plains region had a median household income of $51,664 in 2018. Texas’ household income is generally distributed among five income levels (Exhibit 3). Of more than 9 million Texas households, 21 percent had incomes less than $25,000 in 2018, while 17 percent had incomes greater than $125,000. In every region in the state, nearly 18 percent of households had average incomes between $50,000 and $75,000. Household income in the High Plains region was lower than the state’s, however; only 31.3 percent of the region’s households had incomes greater than $75,000, versus 38 percent for the state.
Exhibit 2
High Plains Region Population by Race and Ethnicity, 2018
Ethnicity
High Plains Region
State Total
Hispanic
36.5%
38.6%
Black (not Hispanic)
5.1%
11.6%
White (not Hispanic)
54.3%
43.4%
Other
4.1%
6.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Exhibit 3
High Plains Region and Texas Household Income Percentile, 2018
Income Level
High Plains Region
State Total
less than $25,000
23.7%
21.1%
$25,000 to $50,000
26.2%
23.0%
$50,000 to $75,000
18.8%
17.9%
$75,000 to $125,000
19.3%
20.6%
more than $125,000
11.9%
17.4%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Regional Industries
In 2019, the High Plains region accounted for almost 3 percent of total Texas employment. Exhibit 4 lists the industries with the greatest regional employment concentrations compared to the national average, as measured by location quotient (LQ). LQ represents an industry’s proportionate concentration in the region; an LQ greater than 1.0 means that industry employment is more concentrated in the region than nationally. A high LQ can identify industries that have a competitive advantage in the region, such as the ability to produce products more efficiently and of a higher quality.
Based on location quotients, the High Plains region is a leader in animal production and aquaculture, oil and gas extraction and support activities for mining.
Exhibit 4
Top 10 High Plains Region Industries, 2019
Occupation
LQ
Number Employed
Average Annual Wages
Animal Production and Aquaculture
14.52
9,913
$45,068
Oil and Gas Extraction
9.89
3,698
$136,134
Support Activities for Mining
7.09
6,340
$81,904
Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing
4.84
343
$42,989
Food Manufacturing
3.62
15,204
$43,434
Crop Production
3.12
4,354
$35,157
Pipeline Transportation
2.74
363
$139,690
Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing
2.58
749
$164,774
Support Activities for Agriculture and Forestry
2.49
2,493
$45,481
Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction
2.15
6,874
$57,338
Total - All Industries
0.98
372,929
$46,457
Data are as of Q4 2019 except wage data, which are for covered employment in 2018.
Source: JobsEQ
Jobs and Wages
High Plains regional employment rose by more than 7 percent from 2009 to 2019. Employment in the Lubbock MSA increased by about 14.2 percent during the same period, nearly double the regional growth (Exhibit 5). More than 31 percent of the region’s total jobs are in the Amarillo MSA, while more than 38 percent are in the Lubbock MSA.
Exhibit 5
High Plains Region Employment Trends, 2019
Area
Number of Jobs (2019)
Actual Change (2009 to 2019)
Percent Change (2009 to 2019)
Amarillo MSA
115,668
5,767
5.2%
Lubbock MSA
144,429
17,944
14.2%
High Plains Region
372,737
24,899
7.2%
Texas
12,531,100
2,284,407
22.3%
United States
147,886,638
17,768,373
13.7%
Note: Figures include private- and public-sector employees with the exception of active-duty military personnel, railroad employees, religious institution employees and the self-employed.
Sources: JobsEQ and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Significant Regional Occupations
The High Plains region’s most significant occupations are shown in Exhibits 6 and 7, first by location quotient and second by numeric growth during the last five years.
Exhibit 6
Top Occupations in the High Plains Region by Location Quotient, 2014 to 2019
Occupation
Number Employed
Average Annual Wages
LQ
Unemployment Rate
Five-Year Employment Change
Extraction Workers
3,069
$44,200
5.21
4.4%
-695
Agricultural Workers
10,668
$25,800
4.74
6.0%
1,072
Supervisors of Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Workers
559
$65,600
4.21
2.1%
77
Food Processing Workers
6,404
$27,800
3.00
2.9%
537
Rail Transportation Workers
624
$52,100
2.29
0.7%
-91
Note: Data are as of Q4 2019 except wage data, which are for covered employment in 2018.
Source: JobsEQ
Exhibit 7
Top Occupations in the High Plains Region by Numeric Growth, 2014 to 2019
Occupation
Number Employed
Average Annual Wages
LQ
Unemployment Rate
Five-Year Employment Change
Food and Beverage Serving Workers
22,581
$21,000
1.13
4.7%
2,740
Health Diagnosing and Treating Practitioners
14,502
$97,000
0.98
0.7%
1,366
Agricultural Workers
10,668
$25,800
4.74
6.0%
1,072
Cooks and Food Preparation Workers
9,035
$23,000
1.05
4.5%
728
Health Technologists and Technicians
9,079
$43,200
1.10
1.6%
641
Note: Data are as of Q4 2019 except wage data, which are for covered employment in 2018.
Source: JobsEQ
Education
A strong educational foundation provides a cornerstone for growth and competitiveness in the global economy, offering opportunities for workplace advancement and business expansion.
Wages by Educational Attainment
Post-secondary education delivers a good return on investments of time and tuition. In the High Plains region, workers with some college or associate degrees and with stable jobs — defined as those employed with the same firm throughout a calendar quarter — earned an average of $3,539 more annually than those with a high school degree in 2018, while those with at least a bachelor’s degree earned an average of $20,207 more (Exhibit 8).
Exhibit 8
Average Annual Earnings by Educational Attainment, High Plains Region and Texas, 2018
Educational Attainment
Number Employed, Region
Percent of Region
Average Annual Earnings, Region
Number Employed, Texas
Percent of Texas
Average Annual Earnings, Texas
Less than High School
62,657
17.0%
$39,622
2,065,483
17.1%
$42,808
High School or Equivalent, No College
91,273
24.7%
$45,422
2,765,759
22.9%
$52,035
Some College or Associate Degree
101,540
27.5%
$48,961
3,245,675
26.9%
$60,428
Bachelor’s Degree or Advanced Degree
59,921
16.2%
$65,629
2,454,975
20.3%
$95,716
Educational Attainment Unavailable
54,224
14.7%
$26,657
1,544,282
12.8%
$22,087
Total
369,615
$47,557
12,076,174
$58,787
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and JobsEQ
During the 2017-18 school year, 92.9 percent of the High Plains region’s public high school senior students graduated, higher than the state’s rate of 90 percent (Exhibit 9). The region’s graduation rate has risen steadily since the 2009-10 school year.
Exhibit 9
High Plains Region Public High School Graduation Rates,
2009-10 to 2017-18 School Year
Region
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
High Plains
86.1%
87.4%
89.0%
88.9%
89.8%
90.6%
91.3%
92.8%
92.9%
Texas
84.3%
85.9%
87.7%
88.0%
88.3%
89.0%
89.1%
89.7%
90.0%
Source: Texas Education Agency
Many high school graduates enroll in postsecondary programs, which offer greater job prospects and the possibility of higher wages. The High Plains region offers a variety of options for higher educational achievement (Exhibit 10).
Exhibit 10 High Plains Region Institutions of Higher Education
Universities
Lubbock Christian University
Texas Tech University
Wayland Baptist University
West Texas A&M University
Health Science Schools
Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center
Junior and Community Colleges
Amarillo College
Clarendon College
Frank Phillips College
South Plains College
Source: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board
The region’s four community college districts provided technical and academic coursework for more than 22,000 students in the 2017-18 school year (Exhibit 11).
Exhibit 11
High Plains Region Community College Overview, 2017-18 School Year
*The percentage of academic or technical graduates employed in the fourth quarter of the calendar year after graduation and/or enrolled in a Texas two- or four-year institution in the following fall after graduation, as specified.
Source: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board
In that year, High Plains community colleges awarded more than 1,100 certificates and associate degrees in health professions; the next most common awards were for general studies and liberal arts, business administration and marketing (Exhibit 12).
Exhibit 12
Top 10 Certificates and Degree Awards in the High Plains Region’s Community Colleges,
2017-18 School Year
Certificates and Degrees
Number Awarded
Health Professions and Related Clinical Sciences
1,157
Liberal Arts and Sciences, General Studies and Humanities
781
Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services
566
Personal and Culinary Services
310
Mechanic and Repair Technologies/Technicians
277
Security and Protective Services
243
Engineering Technologies/Technicians
195
Precision Production
191
Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services
189
Transportation and Materials Moving
142
Source: JobsEQ
Regional Economy
The health of the High Plains region’s economy can be gauged by its sales tax revenue and by comparisons with other areas on education, population, per capita income and unemployment rate. Together, these data are good indicators of the region’s economic dynamics and competitiveness.
Sales Tax Revenue
Sales taxes are inherently volatile in the short term but when reviewed over time can provide a useful indication of the state’s economic condition.
Sales receipts subject to state sales tax directly attributable to the High Plains region trended upward in the past decade. The region saw a significant climb following the 2009 recession, reaching a high point in 2014 (Exhibit 13). While taxable sales revenue declined from 2014 to 2016, it has since been on an upward trend. In that year, receipts subject to state sales tax directly attributed to businesses in the High Plains region exceeded $11 billion, two percent of the state’s total taxable sales. The Lubbock MSA directly accounted for $4.7 billion of this total, while the Amarillo MSA accounted for $3.9 billion.
Exhibit 13
High Plains Region, Taxable Sales, 2007-2019
Year
Revenue High Plains Region
2007
8.24 billion dollars
2008
9.11 billion dollars
2009
8.10 billion dollars
2010
8.38 billion dollars
2011
9.08 billion dollars
2012
10.01 billion dollars
2013
10.46 billion dollars
2014
11.00 billion dollars
2015
10.34 billion dollars
2016
10.07 billion dollars
2017
10.22 billion dollars
2018
10.80 billion dollars
2019
11.07 billion dollars
Note: Numbers shown are for reported revenue subject to sales tax and directly attributed to the region.
Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
In 1997, the U.S., Canada and Mexico jointly released the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), which classifies all business enterprises for the purpose of collecting, analyzing and publishing economic statistics. A review of two-digit NAICS codes allows for a broad analysis of industry sectors.
In 2019, retail trade and the food services and accommodation sectors contributed the most to the High Plains’ taxable sales, together accounting for about 63 percent of the regional total. Another industry of note was the wholesale trade sector, which contributed more than 8 percent of the region’s reported taxable sales.
High Plains Region vs. the U.S.
Exhibit 14 shows how the High Plains region ranks with other states and the nation on several demographic and economic measures. If it were a state, the region would be the 38th largest state in terms of land area (about the same size as Kentucky) and would have the 47th largest population. The region also has the 10th lowest unemployment rate among states in 2019.
Exhibit 14
High PlainsRegion Compared to the U.S.
Measure
High Plains Region
Rank if Region
were a State
Texas
State Rank
U.S.
Square Miles
39,505
38
268,597
2
3,531,905
Population, 2019
872,095
47
28,995,881
2
328,239,523
Population with at Least a High School Diploma, 2018
82.0%
51
83.2%
49
87.7%
Population with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, 2018
22.5%
49
29.3%
28
31.5%
Population Under 18 Years, 2018
25.5%
3
25.8%
2
22.4%
Population 65 Years and Above, 2018
13.8%
48
12.6%
48
16.0%
Population Percent Change, 2010 to 2019
3.90%
26
15.3%
2
6.3%
Per Capita Income, 2018
$43,059
46
$50,355
26
$54,446
Unemployment Rate, 2019
2.9%
10
3.5%
27
3.7%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
High Plains Regional Summary
The High Plains region is mostly rural with two large urban areas, offering a vibrant and diverse economy. Its 41 counties have many unique economic conditions and challenges. Potter and Lubbock counties, with the cities of Amarillo and Lubbock, are the region’s economic centers.
The region’s median age is on par with the state’s, but Lubbock County, its most populous, is significantly younger. About one-quarter of the region’s population is under 18 years of age, and its high school graduation rate is higher than the state average.
The region’s economy reached a high point 2014, but after a slow down, sales receipts subject to state sales tax in 2019 indicate the economy has continued its upward trend. These economic factors, combined with agriculture’s large footprint in the region, differentiate the High Plains regional economy.
