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Certification Revenue Estimate 2018-19Table 4: Texas Economic History and Outlook for Fiscal Years 2010 to 2019
Fall 2017 Forecast
| Measure | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017* | 2018* | 2019* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEXAS ECONOMY | ||||||||||
| Real Gross State Product (Billion 2009 $) | $1,189 | $1,225 | $1,292 | $1,363 | $1,411 | $1,487 | $1,492 | $1,536 | $1,593 | $1,645 |
| Annual percent change | 1.7% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 0.3% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.2% |
| Nominal Gross State Product (Billion $) | $1,222 | $1,318 | $1,414 | $1,513 | $1,600 | $1,620 | $1,602 | $1,699 | $1,811 | $1,913 |
| Annual percent change | 4.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 1.2% | -1.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% |
| Personal Income (Billion $) | $939 | $1,026 | $1,102 | $1,147 | $1,211 | $1,280 | $1,315 | $1,364 | $1,442 | $1,528 |
| Annual percent change | 1.9% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% |
| Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) | 10,322 | 10,546 | 10,824 | 11,163 | 11,494 | 11,824 | 11,984 | 12,227 | 12,480 | 12,723 |
| Annual percent change | -1.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% |
| Resident Population (Thousands) | 25,192 | 25,598 | 26,017 | 26,428 | 26,887 | 27,366 | 27,808 | 28,241 | 28,675 | 29,111 |
| Annual percent change | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Unemployment Rate (Percent) | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% |
| NYMEX Oil Price ($per Barrel) | $76.32 | $91.25 | $94.28 | $93.65 | $101.05 | $64.94 | $41.40 | $48.77 | $50.00 | $53.00 |
| NYMEX Natural Gas Price ($per Million BTUs) | $4.43 | $4.20 | $3.10 | $3.48 | $4.18 | $3.34 | $2.30 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $2.90 |
| U.S. ECONOMY | ||||||||||
| Real Gross Domestic Product (Billion 2009 $) | $14,685 | $14,958 | $15,306 | $15,510 | $15,907 | $16,390 | $16,640 | $16,977 | $17,423 | $17,864 |
| Annual percent change | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| Consumer Price Index (1982-84=100) | 217.4 | 223.1 | 228.5 | 232.2 | 236.0 | 236.7 | 238.9 | 243.8 | 247.7 | 252.6 |
| Annual percent change | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures Deflator (2009=100) | 101.3 | 103.5 | 105.7 | 107.2 | 108.8 | 109.4 | 110.3 | 112.2 | 113.6 | 115.5 |
| Annual percent change | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% |
| Prime Interest Rate (Percent) | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% |
*Estimated or projected
Sources: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts; and IHS Markit