This analysis predates the COVID-19 crisis and the economic impacts that followed. It is offered as an overview of the Central Texas regional economy and a resource for comparative purposes.
The 20-county Central Texas region covers about 17,400 square miles in the heart of Texas, stretching from Hillsboro on the north to Interstate 45 on the east to East Yegua Creek on the south to the conjunction of the San Saba and Colorado rivers.
The Central Texas region includes three metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs): the College Station-Bryan MSA, comprising Brazos, Burleson and Robertson counties; the Waco MSA, comprising Falls and McLennan counties; and the Killeen-Temple MSA, comprising Bell, Coryell and Lampasas counties. Counties in the region not associated with an MSA include Bosque, Freestone, Grimes, Hamilton, Hill, Leon, Limestone, Madison, Milam, Mills, San Saba and Washington counties. The region is unique in that it has three economic centers, the cities of Killeen (Bell County), Waco (McLennan County) and College Station (Brazos County).
This report examines regional economic trends including population, household income, jobs and wages and education, as well as economic conditions and characteristics unique to the Central Texas region.
Population
The Central Texas region’s estimated total population in 2019 was 1.2 million, or about 4.3 percent of the state’s total population. This is an increase of about 10.7 percent (about 120,000 people) since the 2010 census. An estimated 29 percent of the region’s population is concentrated in Bell County, which is part of the Killeen-Temple MSA.
From 2010 to 2019, the region’s population grew at a slower pace than the state (Exhibit 1). While the population of each county in the region changed during this period, Brazos and Bell outpaced all others, growing by 17.6 percent and 17 percent, respectively — above the state’s 15.3 percent growth rate.
Exhibit 1
Central Texas Region Population by County,
2010 and 2019
County
2010 Census
Estimate
(as of July 2019)
Change 2010 to 2019
Percent Change
Bell
310,235
362,924
52,689
17.0%
Bosque
18,212
18,685
473
2.6%
Brazos
194,851
229,211
34,360
17.6%
Burleson
17,187
18,443
1,256
7.3%
Coryell
75,388
75,951
563
0.7%
Falls
17,866
17,297
-569
-3.2%
Freestone
19,816
19,717
-99
-0.5%
Grimes
26,604
28,880
2,276
8.6%
Hamilton
8,517
8,461
-56
-0.7%
Hill
35,089
36,649
1,560
4.4%
Lampasas
19,677
21,428
1,751
8.9%
Leon
16,801
17,404
603
3.6%
Limestone
23,384
23,437
53
0.2%
Madison
13,664
14,284
620
4.5%
McLennan
234,906
256,623
21,717
9.2%
Milam
24,757
24,823
66
0.3%
Mills
4,936
4,873
-63
-1.3%
Robertson
16,622
17,074
452
2.7%
San Saba
6,131
6,055
-76
-1.2%
Washington
33,718
35,882
2,164
6.4%
College Station-Bryan MSA
228,660
264,728
36,068
15.8%
Killeen-Temple MSA
405,300
460,303
55,003
13.6%
Waco MSA
252,772
273,920
21,148
8.4%
Central Texas Region Total
1,118,361
1,238,101
119,740
10.7%
Texas Total
25,145,561
28,995,881
3,850,320
15.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Population Composition
According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2018 American Community Survey, the median age of the residents of the Central Texas region’s counties is on par with that of the state as a whole. Three of the region’s 20 counties had a median age significantly below the state median age of 34.2 years in 2018. These three – Bell (30.4 years), Brazos (25.5 years) and Coryell (31 years), combined with McLennan (33 years) – make up a majority of the region’s population. In fact, Brazos County has one of the “youngest” populations in the state. The College Station-Bryan and Killeen-Temple MSAs both had median ages significantly lower than the state; in 2018, the Waco MSA’s was similar to the statewide median.
About 57 percent of the Central Texas region’s total population was white (not Hispanic) in 2018 — 14 percentage points higher than non-Hispanic whites’ 43.4 percent share of the state population (Exhibit 2).
Household Income
The Central Texas region’s median household income was $50,242 in 2018. Texas’ household income is generally distributed among five income levels. Of more than 9 million Texas households, 21 percent had incomes less than $25,000 in 2018, while 17 percent had incomes greater than $125,000. In every region in the state, nearly 18 percent of households had average incomes between $50,000 and $75,000. The region’s household income was lower than the state average; only 30.6 percent of the region’s household incomes were greater than $75,000, versus 38 percent for Texas as a whole (Exhibit 3). This disparity may be attributable to the younger median age of residents in three of the region’s four most populous counties.
Exhibit 2
Central Texas Region Population by Race and Ethnicity, 2018
Ethnicity
Central Texas Region
State Total
Hispanic
22.6%
38.6%
Black (not Hispanic)
14.7%
11.6%
White (not Hispanic)
57.2%
43.4%
Other
5.5%
6.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Exhibit 3
Central Texas Region and Texas Household Income Percentile, 2018
Income Level
Central Texas Region
State Total
less than $25,000
25.4%
21.1%
$25,000 to $50,000
25.6%
23.0%
$50,000 to $75,000
18.4%
17.9%
$75,000 to $125,000
19.3%
20.6%
more than $125,000
11.2%
17.4%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Regional Industries
In 2019, the Central Texas region accounted for 3.9 percent of the state’s total employment. Exhibit 4 lists the industries with the greatest regional employment concentrations compared to the national average, as measured by location quotient (LQ). LQ represents an industry’s proportionate concentration in the region; an LQ greater than 1.0 means that industry employment is more concentrated in the region than nationally. A high LQ can identify industries that have a competitive advantage in the region, such as the ability to produce products more efficiently and of a higher quality.
Based on location quotients, the Central Texas region is a leader in lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets; animal production and aquaculture; and support activities for mining.
Exhibit 4
Top 10 Central Texas Region Industries, 2019
Industry
LQ
Number Employed
Average Annual Wages
Lessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)
5.05
362
$83,262
Animal Production and Aquaculture
2.71
2,234
$41,097
Support Activities for Mining
2.48
2,668
$78,235
Pipeline Transportation
2.17
345
$112,357
Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction
2.07
7,975
$54,507
Mining (except Oil and Gas)
1.91
1,135
$91,961
Educational Services
1.87
73,825
$44,802
Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing
1.85
2,214
$41,091
Paper Manufacturing
1.74
1,967
$51,660
Justice, Public Order, and Safety Activities
1.73
10,346
$53,256
Total - All Industries
0.97
445,350
$45,085
Data are as of Q4 2019 except wage data, which are for covered employment in 2018.
Source: JobsEQ
U.S. Military Installation Impact
Texas has 14 U.S. military installations within its borders. In 2019, these bases directly employed more than 226,000 and supported nearly 634,000 jobs in all. In all, military installations in Texas contributed an estimated $75.3 billion annually to the state’s gross domestic product (GDP). Fort Hood, the only military installation in the Central Texas region, had a positive impact on the state economy, supporting an estimated 153,000 jobs in 2019 and contributing about $18.2 billion to the state’s GDP (Exhibit 5).
Exhibit 5
U.S. Military Impact on the Central Texas Region Estimated 2019
Region
Total Jobs Supported
Contribution to State GDP
Central Texas
152,701
$18.2 billion
State of Texas
633,892
$75.3 billion
Sources: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, Texas Military Preparedness Commission and REMI
Central Texas regional employment rose by 12 percent from 2009 to 2019, much lower than the state’s total job growth rate. During the same period, employment rose more than 23 percent in the College Station-Bryan MSA; about 14 percent in the Killen-Temple MSA; and more than 10 percent in the Waco MSA (Exhibit 6). In 2019, more than 31 percent of the region’s jobs were located within the Killen-Temple MSA. The Waco MSA accounted for nearly 26 percent, while the College Station-Bryan MSA accounted for more than 25 percent.
Exhibit 6
Central Texas Region Employment Trends, 2019
Area
Number of Jobs (2019)
Actual Change (2009 to 2019)
Percent Change (2009 to 2019)
College Station-Bryan MSA
126,061
23,922
23.4%
Killeen-Temple MSA
153,716
18,897
14.0%
Waco MSA
127,314
12,028
10.4%
Central Texas Region
492,501
53,240
12.1%
Texas
12,531,100
2,284,407
22.3%
United States
147,886,638
17,768,373
13.7%
Note: Figures include private- and public-sector employees with the exception of active-duty military personnel, railroad employees, religious institution employees and the self-employed.
Sources: JobsEQ and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Significant Regional Occupations
The Central Texas region’s most significant occupations are shown in Exhibits 7 and 8, first by location quotient and second by numeric growth during the last five years.
Exhibit 7
Top Occupations in the Central Texas Region by Location Quotient,
2014 to 2019
Occupation
Number Employed
Average Annual Wages
LQ
Unemployment Rate
Five-Year Employment Change
Postsecondary Teachers
11,441
$82,100
2.52
2.0%
754
Extraction Workers
1,460
$41,000
2.06
5.1%
-474
Other Management Occupations
22,616
$81,200
1.62
1.1%
546
Law Enforcement Workers
5,848
$52,300
1.59
1.0%
-125
Woodworkers
1,401
$29,200
1.57
3.7%
202
Note: Data are as of Q4 2019 except wage data, which are for covered employment in 2018.
Source: JobsEQ
Exhibit 8
Top Occupations in the Central Texas Region by Numeric Growth,
2014 to 2019
Occupation
Number Employed
Average Annual Wages
LQ
Unemployment Rate
Five-Year Employment Change
Food and Beverage Serving Workers
28,795
$20,500
1.2
6.0%
4,394
Other Personal Care and Service Workers
12,763
$21,400
0.93
4.5%
2,210
Retail Sales Workers
29,329
$24,200
1.07
5.5%
1,990
Health Diagnosing and Treating Practitioners
18,358
$94,900
1.03
0.9%
1,820
Building Cleaning and Pest Control Workers
12,059
$24,100
1.04
4.7%
1,635
Note: Data are as of Q4 2019 except wage data, which are for covered employment in 2018.
Source: JobsEQ
Education
A strong educational foundation provides a cornerstone for growth and competitiveness in the global economy, offering opportunities for workplace advancement and business expansion.
Wages by Educational Attainment
Post-secondary education delivers a good return on investments of time and tuition. In 2018, Central Texas workers with some college or associate degrees and with stable jobs — defined as those employed with the same firm throughout a calendar quarter — earned an average of $3,773 more annually than those with a high school degree, while those with at least a bachelor’s degree earned an average of $19,389 more (Exhibit 9).
Exhibit 9
Average Annual Earnings by Educational Attainment, Central Texas Region and Texas, 2018
Educational Attainment
Number Employed, Region
Percent of Region
Average Annual Earnings, Region
Number Employed, Texas
Percent of Texas
Average Annual Earnings, Texas
Less than High School
66,723
15.3%
$37,202
2,065,483
17.1%
$42,808
High school or Equivalent, No College
104,529
24.0%
$41,848
2,765,759
22.9%
$52,035
Some College or Associate Degree
117,903
27.1%
$45,621
3,245,675
26.9%
$60,428
Bachelor’s Degree or Advanced Degree
79,996
18.4%
$61,237
2,454,975
20.3%
$95,716
Educational attainment Unavailable
66,089
15.2%
$20,528
1,544,282
12.8%
$22,087
Total
435,240
$43,447
12,076,174
$58,787
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and JobsEQ
During the 2017-18 school year, 85.1 percent of the Central Texas region’s class of public high school senior students graduated, lower than the state rate of 90 percent (Exhibit 10) The region’s high school graduation rate has declined since the 2011-12 school year, falling below the state rate and consistently decreasing in the past few years.
Exhibit 10
Central Texas Region Public High School Graduation Rates,
2009-10 to 2017-18 School Year
Region
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Central Texas
86.5%
87.8%
89.8%
88.8%
88.6%
87.7%
85.6%
85.3%
85.1%
Texas
84.3%
85.9%
87.7%
88.0%
88.3%
89.0%
89.1%
89.7%
90.0%
Source: Texas Education Agency
Many high school graduates enroll in postsecondary programs, which offer greater job prospects and the possibility of earning higher wages. Residents of the Central Texas region enjoy a variety of options for higher educational achievement (Exhibit 11).
Exhibit 11 Central Texas Region Institutions of Higher Education
Universities
Baylor University
Texas A&M University
Texas A&M University – Central Texas
University of Mary Hardin-Baylor
Health Science Schools
Texas A&M Health Science Center
Junior and Community Colleges
Blinn College District
Central Texas College
Hill College
McLennan Community College
Temple College
Texas State Technical College System
Texas State Technical College – Waco
Source: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board
The Central Texas region’s five community college districts provided technical and academic coursework for more than 47,000 students in the 2017-18 school year (Exhibit 12).
Exhibit 12
Central Texas Region Community Colleges Overview, 2017-18 School Year
*The percentage of academic or technical graduates employed in the fourth quarter of the calendar year after graduation and/or enrolled in a Texas two- or four-year institution in the following fall after graduation, as specified.
Source: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board
The region’s community colleges awarded more than 4,600 certificates and associate degrees in general studies and liberal arts in the 2017-18 school year; the next most common awards were for health professions, business administration and marketing (Exhibit 13).
Exhibit 13
Top 10 Certificates and Degree Awards in the Central Texas Region Community Colleges,
2017-18 School Year
Certificates and Degrees
Number Awarded
Liberal Arts and Sciences, General Studies and Humanities
4,678
Health Professions and Related Clinical Sciences
1,648
Business, Management, Marketing and Related Support Services
1,360
Security and Protective Services
745
Mechanic and Repair Technologies/Technicians
739
Engineering Technologies/Technicians
726
Skilled Precision Production of Leather, Metal or Wood Products
553
Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services
475
Personal and Culinary Services
271
Construction Trades
240
Source: JobsEQ
Regional Economy
The relative health of the Central Texas region’s economy can be measured by its sales tax revenue and comparison to other states on education, population, per capita income and unemployment rate. Together, these data are good indicators of the region’s economic dynamics and competitiveness.
Sales Tax Revenue
Sales taxes are inherently volatile in the short term but when reviewed over time can provide a useful indication of the state’s economic condition.
Sales receipts subject to state sales tax directly attributable to the Central Texas region trended upward in the past decade. The region saw a slow but steady increase in taxable sales following the 2009 recession, with 2019 results showing a continuation of this trajectory (Exhibit 14). For 2019, receipts subject to state sales tax directly attributed to businesses in the Central Texas region totaled $12.3 billion , contributing about 2.2 percent to the state’s overall taxable sales. The Waco MSA directly accounted for about $3.1 billion of this total, while the Killeen-Temple and College Station-Bryan MSAs contributed about $3.9 billion and $3.4 billion , respectively.
Exhibit 14
Central Texas Region, Taxable Sales, 2007-2019
Year
Revenue Central Texas Region
2007
8.4 billion dollars
2008
8.9 billion dollars
2009
8.3 billion dollars
2010
8.5 billion dollars
2011
8.6 billion dollars
2012
9.3 billion dollars
2013
9.8 billion dollars
2014
10.5 billion dollars
2015
10.7 billion dollars
2016
11.1 billion dollars
2017
11.8 billion dollars
2018
12.2 billion dollars
2019
12.3 billion dollars
Note: Numbers shown are for reported revenue subject to sales tax and directly attributed to the region.
Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
In 1997, the U.S., Canada and Mexico jointly released the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), which classifies all business enterprises for the purpose of collecting, analyzing and publishing economic statistics. A review of two-digit NAICS codes allows for a broad analysis of industry sectors.
In 2019, the the Central Texas region’s retail trade and food services and accommodation sectors contribute most to taxable sales, with the two combined accounting for 69 percent of the region’s total. Two other industries of note are the wholesale trade and the manufacturing sectors, which together contributed a combined 10.4 percent of the region’s reported taxable sales.
Central Texas Region vs. the U.S.
Exhibit 15 shows how the Central Texas region ranks with other states and the nation on a number of demographic and economic measures. If it were a state, the region would be the 42nd largest in the union in terms of land area (sized between West Virgina and Maryland) and have the 43rd largest population.
Exhibit 15
Central Texas Region Compared to the U.S.
Measure
Central Texas Region
Rank if Region
were a State
Texas
State Rank
U.S.
Square Miles
17,362
42
268,597
2
3,531,905
Population, 2019
1,238,101
43
28,995,881
2
328,239,523
Population with at least a High School Diploma, 2018
86.2%
44
83.2%
49
87.7%
Population with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, 2018
24.1%
46
29.3%
28
31.5%
Population Under 18 Years, 2018
24.1%
9
25.8%
2
22.4%
Population 65 Years and Above, 2018
13.7%
48
12.6%
48
16.0%
Population Percent Change, 2010 to 2019
10.7%
11
15.3%
2
6.3%
Per Capita Income, 2018
$40,757
50
$50,355
26
$54,446
Unemployment Rate, 2019
3.4%
25
3.5%
27
3.7%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Central Texas Regional Summary
The Central Texas region is a microcosm of the state — both urban and rural, with a vibrant and diverse economy. The region is unique in that it has three distinct economic centers: the Waco, Killeen-Temple and College Station-Bryan MSAs.
The Central Texas region and its 20 counties have many unique economic conditions and challenges. It has seen reasonable population growth across the board since 2010, and its median age is significantly younger than that of Texas as a whole. The region’s employment growth rate is below the state’s. TheCollege Station-Bryan MSA has leadthe region in employment growth.
Fort Hood Army base has had a significant impact on the Central Texas region’s local economies. In addition, 2019 receipts subject to state sales tax indicated a continuation of the region’s slow and steady rise after the 2009 recession. Many distinct industry subsectors are represented in the region’s most highly concentrated industries, attesting to its diverse economy.
