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Economic Summary
Fall 2019 Economic Forecast
Economic Summary
Fiscal Years 1991 to 2046
Download Forecast Summary, Fiscal Years 1991 to 2046 (XLSX)
| Statistic | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross State Product (Billion 2012$) | 641.9 | 664.5 | 698.8 | 730.9 | 764.2 | 799.0 | 857.0 | 915.9 | 955.8 | 992.8 | 1,016.9 | 1,038.5 | 1,041.2 | 1,091.5 | 1,125.3 | 1,186.2 | 1,261.3 | 1,276.0 | 1,274.4 | 1,292.7 | 1,329.7 | 1,394.6 | 1,459.9 | 1,497.3 | 1,577.5 | 1,593.1 | 1,614.3 | 1,659.5 | 1,732.4 | 1,777.9 | 1,822.4 | 1,865.2 | 1,909.6 | 1,960.5 | 2,015.2 | 2,071.1 | 2,128.0 | 2,191.2 | 2,257.2 | 2,323.1 | 2,387.4 | 2,450.9 | 2,511.3 | 2,573.1 | 2,635.5 | 2,698.5 | 2,764.1 | 2,833.2 | 2,905.8 | 2,982.6 | 3,060.3 | 3,140.3 | 3,222.3 | 3,308.3 | 3,397.9 | 3,491.6 |
| Annual % Change | 3.5 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 1.2 | (0.1) | 1.4 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 | |
| Gross State Product (Bil. Current $) | 398.6 | 420.1 | 450.0 | 479.1 | 509.2 | 546.4 | 598.0 | 637.9 | 669.4 | 726.5 | 768.0 | 781.9 | 814.3 | 887.7 | 963.0 | 1,063.4 | 1,152.9 | 1,238.3 | 1,171.0 | 1,216.4 | 1,306.7 | 1,390.4 | 1,482.2 | 1,553.3 | 1,571.7 | 1,556.8 | 1,628.8 | 1,745.0 | 1,839.7 | 1,932.8 | 2,037.5 | 2,140.0 | 2,243.4 | 2,353.1 | 2,475.2 | 2,604.4 | 2,735.1 | 2,878.8 | 3,033.4 | 3,196.4 | 3,363.5 | 3,534.2 | 3,707.9 | 3,887.2 | 4,072.0 | 4,265.1 | 4,465.7 | 4,676.8 | 4,898.2 | 5,133.6 | 5,381.1 | 5,642.8 | 5,917.5 | 6,209.9 | 6,519.8 | 6,848.1 |
| Annual % Change | 5.4 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 8.4 | 7.4 | (5.4) | 3.9 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 1.2 | (0.9) | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | |
| Personal Income (Billion Current $) | 307.3 | 330.4 | 351.7 | 370.3 | 396.8 | 425.0 | 461.7 | 504.8 | 533.7 | 578.5 | 619.2 | 629.3 | 649.3 | 676.6 | 729.7 | 804.9 | 857.5 | 938.6 | 925.6 | 945.7 | 1,037.6 | 1,111.3 | 1,156.4 | 1,227.5 | 1,280.3 | 1,282.5 | 1,325.8 | 1,391.8 | 1,456.9 | 1,524.7 | 1,604.0 | 1,681.9 | 1,764.5 | 1,851.4 | 1,949.4 | 2,049.1 | 2,153.0 | 2,266.0 | 2,385.7 | 2,512.5 | 2,646.1 | 2,785.0 | 2,928.4 | 3,076.1 | 3,229.1 | 3,389.6 | 3,557.1 | 3,729.9 | 3,909.7 | 4,100.0 | 4,298.2 | 4,510.2 | 4,734.4 | 4,970.3 | 5,218.9 | 5,480.4 |
| Annual % Change | 7.5 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 6.5 | 9.5 | (1.4) | 2.2 | 9.7 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 0.2 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | |
| Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) | 7,193.6 | 7,265.8 | 7,457.0 | 7,706.7 | 8,002.1 | 8,225.2 | 8,552.6 | 8,896.0 | 9,139.7 | 9,397.1 | 9,562.1 | 9,457.8 | 9,407.1 | 9,480.2 | 9,700.3 | 10,018.5 | 10,347.3 | 10,618.7 | 10,439.2 | 10,323.8 | 10,548.3 | 10,824.8 | 11,163.2 | 11,493.2 | 11,820.8 | 11,975.4 | 12,167.8 | 12,430.6 | 12,702.0 | 12,946.6 | 13,128.0 | 13,292.5 | 13,423.2 | 13,550.9 | 13,704.8 | 13,862.3 | 14,016.4 | 14,174.8 | 14,341.9 | 14,525.3 | 14,715.3 | 14,908.7 | 15,092.3 | 15,267.0 | 15,431.8 | 15,592.5 | 15,748.6 | 15,904.4 | 16,063.7 | 16,242.3 | 16,406.4 | 16,583.6 | 16,761.4 | 16,949.0 | 17,143.6 | 17,346.3 |
| Annual % Change | 1.0 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.8 | (1.1) | (0.5) | 0.8 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.6 | (1.7) | (1.1) | 2.2 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | |
| Resident Population (Thousands) | 17,356.6 | 17,717.0 | 18,111.4 | 18,513.3 | 18,908.6 | 19,293.8 | 19,691.4 | 20,104.3 | 20,507.5 | 20,896.8 | 21,272.5 | 21,642.1 | 21,989.8 | 22,349.9 | 22,744.9 | 23,327.6 | 23,773.2 | 24,250.4 | 24,738.1 | 25,190.9 | 25,598.3 | 26,031.5 | 26,445.0 | 26,917.6 | 27,419.4 | 27,877.1 | 28,274.2 | 28,654.7 | 29,040.8 | 29,436.7 | 29,835.8 | 30,236.5 | 30,637.4 | 31,037.6 | 31,435.5 | 31,829.8 | 32,220.6 | 32,607.7 | 32,991.1 | 33,370.9 | 33,746.9 | 34,118.9 | 34,487.0 | 34,851.4 | 35,212.9 | 35,571.7 | 35,927.6 | 36,280.7 | 36,630.9 | 36,978.0 | 37,322.1 | 37,663.2 | 38,001.4 | 38,336.9 | 38,669.7 | 39,000.0 |
| Annual % Change | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.7 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| NYMEX Oil Price ($ per Barrel) | 25.42 | 20.91 | 20.13 | 16.86 | 18.27 | 19.60 | 22.27 | 17.13 | 14.95 | 26.70 | 29.76 | 23.74 | 30.11 | 34.56 | 50.31 | 65.63 | 63.45 | 101.93 | 64.09 | 76.32 | 91.25 | 94.28 | 93.65 | 101.05 | 64.94 | 41.40 | 48.77 | 60.58 | 59.62 | 58.00 | 54.00 | 56.00 | 61.00 | 66.00 | 70.00 | 75.00 | 79.00 | 85.00 | 90.00 | 96.00 | 102.00 | 109.00 | 116.00 | 121.00 | 126.00 | 130.00 | 133.00 | 136.00 | 138.00 | 139.00 | 140.00 | 141.00 | 142.00 | 143.00 | 143.00 | 144.00 |
| NYMEX Nat. Gas Price ($ per Million BTUs) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.66 | 2.11 | 2.43 | 2.47 | 2.05 | 2.86 | 5.41 | 2.84 | 4.80 | 5.55 | 6.57 | 9.28 | 7.06 | 8.47 | 5.91 | 4.43 | 4.20 | 3.10 | 3.48 | 4.18 | 3.34 | 2.30 | 3.04 | 2.88 | 2.99 | 2.50 | 2.55 | 2.60 | 2.65 | 2.85 | 3.10 | 3.30 | 3.50 | 3.65 | 3.85 | 3.95 | 4.10 | 4.50 | 5.10 | 5.25 | 5.35 | 5.40 | 5.65 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 6.45 | 6.70 | 7.05 | 7.50 | 7.85 | 8.45 | 8.95 |
| U. S. ECONOMY Gross Domestic Product (Billion 2012$) | 9,328.2 | 9,581.7 | 9,887.4 | 10,248.6 | 10,572.5 | 10,912.7 | 11,396.1 | 11,895.4 | 12,462.8 | 13,035.3 | 13,257.0 | 13,423.5 | 13,732.5 | 14,290.3 | 14,798.3 | 15,240.7 | 15,549.8 | 15,713.2 | 15,201.8 | 15,500.1 | 15,777.3 | 16,138.2 | 16,389.2 | 16,792.2 | 17,322.4 | 17,600.1 | 17,983.5 | 18,522.9 | 18,961.7 | 19,397.0 | 19,823.9 | 20,186.9 | 20,509.2 | 20,841.1 | 21,239.6 | 21,657.2 | 22,093.7 | 22,560.6 | 23,040.3 | 23,525.9 | 23,997.7 | 24,469.7 | 24,919.0 | 25,362.8 | 25,803.0 | 26,259.6 | 26,716.5 | 27,190.1 | 27,672.8 | 28,171.1 | 28,672.1 | 29,192.7 | 29,721.9 | 30,272.3 | 30,834.3 | 31,406.1 |
| Annual % Change | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | (3.3) | 2.0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | |
| Consumer Price Index (1982-4=100) | 135.2 | 139.2 | 143.5 | 147.3 | 151.4 | 155.6 | 159.8 | 162.4 | 165.5 | 170.7 | 176.2 | 178.9 | 183.1 | 187.3 | 193.5 | 200.6 | 205.3 | 214.4 | 213.8 | 217.4 | 223.1 | 228.5 | 232.3 | 236.0 | 236.8 | 238.9 | 243.9 | 249.7 | 254.5 | 260.0 | 265.0 | 271.2 | 277.9 | 284.7 | 291.5 | 298.2 | 305.1 | 312.2 | 319.3 | 326.5 | 333.9 | 341.4 | 349.1 | 356.9 | 364.7 | 372.6 | 380.9 | 389.4 | 398.1 | 407.0 | 416.1 | 425.6 | 435.3 | 445.3 | 455.7 | 466.2 |
| Annual % Change | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 4.4 | (0.3) | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |
| PCE Index (2012=100) | 65.1 | 66.8 | 68.5 | 70.0 | 71.5 | 72.9 | 74.4 | 75.1 | 76.0 | 77.8 | 79.5 | 80.4 | 82.0 | 83.8 | 86.2 | 88.8 | 90.7 | 93.9 | 93.8 | 95.4 | 97.5 | 99.6 | 101.0 | 102.6 | 103.0 | 103.7 | 105.4 | 107.6 | 109.3 | 111.5 | 113.6 | 116.0 | 118.6 | 121.2 | 123.8 | 126.5 | 129.1 | 131.8 | 134.6 | 137.3 | 140.1 | 143.0 | 145.9 | 148.8 | 151.7 | 154.8 | 157.9 | 161.1 | 164.4 | 167.8 | 171.3 | 174.8 | 178.5 | 182.3 | 186.1 | 190.1 |
| Annual % Change | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 3.5 | (0.1) | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | |
| Prime Interest Rate (%) | 9.1 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
Source: Fall 2019 Forecast. Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.