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Forecast Summary
Fall 2019 Economic Forecast
Forecast Summary
Calendar Years 1990—2046
Download Forecast Summary, Calendar Years (XLSX)
| Statistic | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross State Product (Billion 2012$) | 636.6 | 645.6 | 673.6 | 706.4 | 741.1 | 770.3 | 811.2 | 872.8 | 928.4 | 965.7 | 998.3 | 1,021.9 | 1,041.8 | 1,048.3 | 1,102.7 | 1,132.8 | 1,210.3 | 1,274.3 | 1,275.8 | 1,271.4 | 1,301.7 | 1,343.8 | 1,411.4 | 1,472.1 | 1,512.4 | 1,590.0 | 1,593.1 | 1,624.9 | 1,676.7 | 1,745.7 | 1,789.3 | 1,833.0 | 1,876.1 | 1,921.5 | 1,974.0 | 2,029.3 | 2,084.9 | 2,143.2 | 2,207.8 | 2,274.0 | 2,339.0 | 2,403.5 | 2,466.4 | 2,526.4 | 2,588.6 | 2,651.3 | 2,714.6 | 2,781.1 | 2,850.9 | 2,924.8 | 3,002.0 | 3,080.1 | 3,160.6 | 3,243.2 | 3,330.4 | 3,421.2 | 3,515.1 |
| Annual % Change | 1.4 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 0.1 | (0.3) | 2.4 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | |
| Gross State Product (Bil. Current $) | 388.4 | 403.0 | 427.6 | 457.1 | 487.5 | 516.3 | 558.1 | 610.3 | 645.7 | 681.3 | 738.9 | 773.0 | 787.3 | 829.8 | 906.3 | 986.4 | 1,085.3 | 1,178.6 | 1,237.4 | 1,163.4 | 1,237.2 | 1,331.2 | 1,411.4 | 1,502.2 | 1,565.4 | 1,568.1 | 1,564.4 | 1,654.5 | 1,775.8 | 1,857.0 | 1,959.2 | 2,064.5 | 2,165.7 | 2,269.7 | 2,382.9 | 2,507.1 | 2,635.8 | 2,769.9 | 2,916.7 | 3,073.7 | 3,237.7 | 3,406.0 | 3,577.4 | 3,752.1 | 3,932.7 | 4,119.6 | 4,314.4 | 4,517.4 | 4,731.0 | 4,955.8 | 5,194.3 | 5,445.4 | 5,710.2 | 5,988.6 | 6,285.7 | 6,600.6 | 6,932.1 |
| Annual % Change | 3.6 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 5.0 | (6.0) | 6.3 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 0.2 | (0.2) | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | |
| Personal Income (Billion Current $) | 296.2 | 310.0 | 335.3 | 354.8 | 375.1 | 401.5 | 431.7 | 470.3 | 514.5 | 541.7 | 589.6 | 625.4 | 632.5 | 655.8 | 686.9 | 747.1 | 820.1 | 871.8 | 956.5 | 911.2 | 966.9 | 1,058.0 | 1,133.8 | 1,160.4 | 1,250.8 | 1,282.4 | 1,287.7 | 1,340.6 | 1,409.5 | 1,480.9 | 1,554.6 | 1,630.9 | 1,710.4 | 1,792.8 | 1,877.4 | 1,971.8 | 2,070.9 | 2,171.5 | 2,286.9 | 2,404.4 | 2,533.6 | 2,669.1 | 2,808.0 | 2,952.6 | 3,105.9 | 3,266.0 | 3,434.2 | 3,608.5 | 3,787.7 | 3,974.5 | 4,170.4 | 4,373.3 | 4,589.6 | 4,818.3 | 5,059.0 | 5,312.5 | 5,578.2 |
| Annual % Change | 4.7 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 9.7 | (4.7) | 6.1 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | |
| Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) | 7,125.7 | 7,204.7 | 7,300.1 | 7,514.5 | 7,786.6 | 8,059.0 | 8,292.2 | 8,643.7 | 8,973.1 | 9,189.5 | 9,462.0 | 9,545.0 | 9,447.4 | 9,401.8 | 9,527.7 | 9,772.9 | 10,098.9 | 10,429.6 | 10,643.1 | 10,341.3 | 10,375.3 | 10,605.4 | 10,914.6 | 11,240.9 | 11,592.6 | 11,864.8 | 12,013.6 | 12,227.9 | 12,504.1 | 12,775.8 | 13,009.9 | 13,179.9 | 13,327.6 | 13,453.0 | 13,587.9 | 13,744.5 | 13,900.4 | 14,055.6 | 14,216.2 | 14,383.0 | 14,574.6 | 14,764.4 | 14,955.9 | 15,136.2 | 15,309.7 | 15,471.7 | 15,632.3 | 15,786.9 | 15,943.6 | 16,105.2 | 16,285.6 | 16,450.4 | 16,627.9 | 16,806.7 | 16,997.0 | 17,194.6 | 17,395.9 |
| Annual % Change | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | (1.0) | (0.5) | 1.3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.1 | (2.8) | 0.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | |
| Resident Population (Thousands) | 17,105.1 | 17,444.5 | 17,812.5 | 18,212.0 | 18,612.9 | 19,005.6 | 19,391.5 | 19,793.5 | 20,206.6 | 20,606.4 | 20,991.5 | 21,365.7 | 21,731.0 | 22,077.7 | 22,443.3 | 22,898.1 | 23,426.8 | 23,891.9 | 24,371.6 | 24,857.1 | 25,293.3 | 25,700.6 | 26,126.4 | 26,543.3 | 27,018.6 | 27,508.0 | 27,951.7 | 28,356.7 | 28,775.0 | 29,212.4 | 29,654.8 | 30,097.5 | 30,540.3 | 30,982.4 | 31,423.2 | 31,861.9 | 32,297.8 | 32,731.1 | 33,161.5 | 33,589.4 | 34,014.7 | 34,437.2 | 34,856.7 | 35,273.3 | 35,687.3 | 36,099.5 | 36,509.9 | 36,918.5 | 37,325.3 | 37,730.2 | 38,133.2 | 38,534.2 | 38,933.4 | 39,330.9 | 39,726.7 | 40,120.8 | 40,513.2 |
| Annual % Change | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.3 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| NYMEX Oil Price ($ per Barrel) | 24.50 | 21.46 | 20.57 | 18.48 | 17.18 | 18.40 | 22.01 | 20.61 | 14.43 | 19.24 | 30.20 | 25.90 | 26.08 | 31.04 | 41.40 | 56.56 | 66.22 | 72.31 | 99.65 | 61.80 | 79.53 | 95.12 | 94.21 | 97.97 | 93.00 | 48.79 | 43.32 | 50.95 | 64.73 | 58.00 | 56.00 | 54.00 | 59.00 | 63.00 | 67.00 | 72.00 | 77.00 | 82.00 | 87.00 | 92.00 | 99.00 | 105.00 | 112.00 | 118.00 | 124.00 | 128.00 | 131.00 | 134.00 | 137.00 | 138.00 | 140.00 | 141.00 | 142.00 | 143.00 | 143.00 | 144.00 | 144.00 |
| NYMEX Natural Gas Price ($/Million BTUs) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.95 | 1.69 | 2.51 | 2.47 | 2.16 | 2.31 | 4.31 | 4.03 | 3.36 | 5.50 | 6.19 | 9.00 | 6.99 | 7.12 | 8.90 | 4.16 | 4.40 | 4.03 | 2.82 | 3.73 | 4.28 | 2.63 | 2.55 | 3.02 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.55 | 2.55 | 2.60 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 3.55 | 3.75 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 4.15 | 4.90 | 5.20 | 5.30 | 5.40 | 5.45 | 5.85 | 6.10 | 6.35 | 6.55 | 6.80 | 7.35 | 7.60 | 8.15 | 8.70 | 9.10 |
| U. S. ECONOMY | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gross Domestic Product (Billion 2012$) | 9,365.5 | 9,355.4 | 9,684.9 | 9,951.5 | 10,352.4 | 10,630.3 | 11,031.3 | 11,521.9 | 12,038.3 | 12,610.5 | 13,131.0 | 13,262.1 | 13,493.1 | 13,879.1 | 14,406.4 | 14,912.5 | 15,338.3 | 15,626.0 | 15,604.7 | 15,208.8 | 15,598.8 | 15,840.7 | 16,197.0 | 16,495.4 | 16,912.0 | 17,403.8 | 17,688.9 | 18,108.1 | 18,638.2 | 19,070.5 | 19,512.9 | 19,916.7 | 20,272.3 | 20,587.2 | 20,934.9 | 21,344.6 | 21,762.7 | 22,208.1 | 22,680.4 | 23,161.5 | 23,641.0 | 24,122.2 | 24,615.3 | 25,081.8 | 25,544.5 | 25,996.1 | 26,453.4 | 26,923.8 | 27,417.3 | 27,922.0 | 28,429.8 | 28,939.5 | 29,451.4 | 29,973.7 | 30,507.9 | 31,057.1 | 31,616.6 |
| Annual % Change | (0.1) | 3.5 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.9 | (0.1) | (2.5) | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | |
| Consumer Price Index (1982-4=100) | 130.7 | 136.2 | 140.3 | 144.5 | 148.2 | 152.4 | 156.9 | 160.5 | 163.0 | 166.6 | 172.2 | 177.0 | 179.9 | 184.0 | 188.9 | 195.3 | 201.6 | 207.3 | 215.3 | 214.6 | 218.1 | 224.9 | 229.6 | 233.0 | 236.7 | 237.0 | 240.0 | 245.1 | 251.1 | 255.9 | 261.1 | 266.6 | 272.9 | 279.5 | 286.4 | 293.2 | 299.9 | 306.9 | 313.9 | 321.1 | 328.1 | 335.1 | 342.2 | 349.6 | 357.0 | 364.7 | 372.5 | 380.6 | 389.0 | 397.5 | 406.1 | 415.1 | 424.5 | 434.0 | 443.9 | 454.2 | 464.5 |
| Annual % Change | 4.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.8 | (0.3) | 1.6 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |
| PCE Index (2012=100) | 63.4 | 65.5 | 67.2 | 68.9 | 70.3 | 71.8 | 73.3 | 74.6 | 75.2 | 76.3 | 78.2 | 79.7 | 80.8 | 82.4 | 84.4 | 86.8 | 89.2 | 91.4 | 94.2 | 94.1 | 95.7 | 98.1 | 100.0 | 101.3 | 102.8 | 103.0 | 104.1 | 105.9 | 108.1 | 109.8 | 112.0 | 114.2 | 116.7 | 119.2 | 121.9 | 124.5 | 127.1 | 129.8 | 132.5 | 135.3 | 138.0 | 140.6 | 143.3 | 146.1 | 148.8 | 151.7 | 154.6 | 157.7 | 160.8 | 164.0 | 167.2 | 170.6 | 174.0 | 177.5 | 181.1 | 184.8 | 188.5 |
| Annual % Change | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 3.0 | (0.1) | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |
| Prime Interest Rate (%) | 10.0 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
Source: Fall 2019 Forecast. Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.