Top navigation skipped
Economic Summary
Summer 2018 Economic Forecast
Economic Summary
Fiscal Years 1991 to 2046
Download Forecast Summary, Fiscal Years 1991 to 2046 (CSV)
| Statistic | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross State Product (Billion FY2009 Dollars) | $599.8 | $620.7 | $652.1 | $682.6 | $710.1 | $743.7 | $801.6 | $855.6 | $891.9 | $925.5 | $949.7 | $966.9 | $969.5 | $1,014.3 | $1,040.3 | $1,091.9 | $1,156.3 | $1,171.5 | $1,169.5 | $1,188.8 | $1,225.3 | $1,292.4 | $1,363.0 | $1,408.9 | $1,482.7 | $1,482.4 | $1,504.4 | $1,571.8 | $1,638.3 | $1,683.1 | $1,722.5 | $1,766.0 | $1,812.6 | $1,862.1 | $1,908.8 | $1,957.0 | $2,008.3 | $2,064.7 | $2,124.2 | $2,184.0 | $2,245.9 | $2,307.0 | $2,367.7 | $2,432.2 | $2,496.5 | $2,563.1 | $2,631.7 | $2,703.6 | $2,777.7 | $2,856.6 | $2,936.8 | $3,021.2 | $3,107.5 | $3,197.0 | $3,290.3 | $3,385.9 |
| Annual % Change for Gross State Product (Billion Fiscal Year 2009 Dollars) | N/A | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 1.3% | -0.2% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 0% | 1.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| Gross State Product (Billion Current Dollars) | $400.4 | $421.8 | $452.1 | $481.6 | $511.9 | $549.9 | $602.3 | $640.6 | $671.8 | $728.5 | $771.3 | $784.1 | $817.5 | $891.5 | $965.8 | $1,067.1 | $1,154.7 | $1,242.3 | $1,174.5 | $1,221.7 | $1,317.5 | $1,414.5 | $1,513.4 | $1,597.6 | $1,620.4 | $1,594.8 | $1,665.1 | $1,793.4 | $1,907.0 | $2,012.9 | $2,113.5 | $2,213.3 | $2,319.3 | $2,434.2 | $2,554.1 | $2,678.7 | $2,809.1 | $2,950.4 | $3,103.8 | $3,264.1 | $3,430.3 | $3,599.6 | $3,775.7 | $3,962.4 | $4,154.2 | $4,356.7 | $4,565.5 | $4,782.7 | $5,009.1 | $5,250.8 | $5,505.3 | $5,777.8 | $6,063.7 | $6,366.9 | $6,688.1 | $7,024.4 |
| Annual % Change for Gross State Product (Billion Current Dollars) | N/A | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 1.7% | 4.3% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | -5.5% | 4.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 1.4% | -1.6% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Personal Income (Billion Current Dollars) | $305.9 | $329.0 | $350.2 | $368.7 | $395.5 | $423.6 | $460.0 | $503.0 | $532.5 | $578.3 | $619.9 | $630.5 | $649.8 | $675.0 | $729.1 | $802.8 | $856.9 | $947.3 | $921.1 | $938.6 | $1,026.4 | $1,101.6 | $1,147.5 | $1,211.1 | $1,279.0 | $1,288.9 | $1,314.1 | $1,373.9 | $1,461.3 | $1,541.0 | $1,620.8 | $1,701.7 | $1,785.9 | $1,873.1 | $1,967.7 | $2,066.8 | $2,167.9 | $2,280.6 | $2,398.4 | $2,526.2 | $2,662.2 | $2,801.3 | $2,945.7 | $3,098.5 | $3,258.3 | $3,426.3 | $3,601.4 | $3,780.9 | $3,967.4 | $4,163.1 | $4,365.6 | $4,580.9 | $4,809.2 | $5,049.0 | $5,302.1 | $5,567.5 |
| Annual % Change for Personal Income | N/A | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 10.6% | -2.8% | 1.9% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) | 7,194.1 | 7,266.8 | 7,457.8 | 7,705.8 | 8,000.9 | 8,225.2 | 8,553.1 | 8,896.2 | 9,139.7 | 9,396.1 | 9,561.5 | 9,457.5 | 9,407.1 | 9,479.4 | 9,698.8 | 10,017.2 | 10,346.0 | 10,617.7 | 10,438.6 | 10,322.7 | 10,546.1 | 10,823.8 | 11,163.5 | 11,492.0 | 11,820.5 | 11,974.4 | 12,162.8 | 12,456.3 | 12,770.9 | 13,005.5 | 13,170.4 | 13,312.2 | 13,439.0 | 13,567.0 | 13,707.0 | 13,848.2 | 14,000.9 | 14,170.1 | 14,345.4 | 14,520.7 | 14,686.7 | 14,855.0 | 15,024.2 | 15,204.8 | 15,384.9 | 15,570.1 | 15,755.9 | 15,944.6 | 16,138.3 | 16,350.3 | 16,544.5 | 16,750.3 | 16,959.5 | 17,177.0 | 17,403.8 | 17,639.2 |
| Annual % Change for Nonfarm Employment | N/A | 1.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% | -1.1% | -0.5% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.6% | -1.7% | -1.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% |
| Resident Population (Thousands) | 17,356.6 | 17,717.0 | 18,111.4 | 18,513.3 | 18,908.6 | 19,293.8 | 19,691.4 | 20,104.3 | 20,507.5 | 20,896.8 | 21,272.5 | 21,642.1 | 21,989.8 | 22,350.0 | 22,744.9 | 23,327.6 | 23,773.2 | 24,250.4 | 24,738.1 | 25,190.4 | 25,596.0 | 26,022.0 | 26,433.8 | 26,896.6 | 27,389.2 | 27,845.5 | 28,255.3 | 28,668.6 | 29,102.5 | 29,545.2 | 29,988.7 | 30,432.5 | 30,876.0 | 31,318.5 | 31,759.2 | 32,197.4 | 32,632.9 | 33,065.7 | 33,495.8 | 33,923.5 | 34,348.3 | 34,770.2 | 35,189.0 | 35,605.2 | 36,019.3 | 36,431.6 | 36,842.1 | 37,250.8 | 37,657.7 | 38,062.6 | 38,465.6 | 38,866.7 | 39,266.2 | 39,664.0 | 40,060.2 | 40,454.6 |
| Annual % Change for Resident Population | N/A | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% |
| NYMEX Oil Price ($per Barrel) | $25.42 | $20.91 | $20.13 | $16.86 | $18.27 | $19.60 | $22.27 | $17.13 | $14.95 | $26.70 | $29.76 | $23.74 | $30.11 | $34.56 | $50.31 | $65.63 | $63.45 | $101.93 | $64.09 | $76.32 | $91.25 | $94.28 | $93.65 | $101.05 | $64.94 | $41.40 | $48.77 | $60.00 | $64.00 | $60.00 | $57.00 | $55.00 | $55.00 | $55.00 | $56.00 | $60.00 | $68.00 | $75.00 | $81.00 | $85.00 | $86.00 | $87.00 | $88.00 | $88.00 | $88.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 |
| NYMEX Nat. Gas Price ($per Million BTUs) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | $1.66 | $2.11 | $2.43 | $2.47 | $2.05 | $2.86 | $5.41 | $2.84 | $4.80 | $5.55 | $6.57 | $9.28 | $7.06 | $8.47 | $5.91 | $4.43 | $4.20 | $3.10 | $3.48 | $4.18 | $3.34 | $2.30 | $3.04 | $2.85 | $2.90 | $2.85 | $2.80 | $3.00 | $3.10 | $3.30 | $3.50 | $3.60 | $3.60 | $3.60 | $3.60 | $3.60 | $3.65 | $3.65 | $3.65 | $3.65 | $3.65 | $3.65 | $3.65 | $3.70 | $3.70 | $3.70 | $3.70 | $3.70 | $3.70 | $3.70 | $3.75 | $3.75 |
| U.S. ECONOMY | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gross U.S. Product (Billion FY2009 Dollars) | $8,921.1 | $9,169.0 | $9,459.3 | $9,805.7 | $10,117.6 | $10,446.5 | $10,917.0 | $11,385.8 | $11,927.7 | $12,470.7 | $12,675.8 | $12,844.1 | $13,129.9 | $13,668.1 | $14,128.5 | $14,527.9 | $14,805.0 | $14,934.1 | $14,427.5 | $14,684.5 | $14,957.8 | $15,306.1 | $15,509.8 | $15,906.7 | $16,389.7 | $16,640.2 | $16,987.4 | $17,457.6 | $17,964.8 | $18,344.7 | $18,656.0 | $18,960.8 | $19,278.1 | $19,617.3 | $19,971.3 | $20,331.2 | $20,704.9 | $21,103.0 | $21,511.0 | $21,921.1 | $22,346.1 | $22,769.9 | $23,196.9 | $23,646.3 | $24,093.6 | $24,546.2 | $25,006.5 | $25,480.6 | $25,959.7 | $26,445.0 | $26,924.9 | $27,424.9 | $27,946.1 | $28,480.3 | $29,033.9 | $29,591.5 |
| Annual % Change for Gross Domestic Product | N/A | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | -3.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) | 135.2 | 139.2 | 143.5 | 147.3 | 151.4 | 155.6 | 159.8 | 162.4 | 165.5 | 170.7 | 176.2 | 178.9 | 183.1 | 187.3 | 193.5 | 200.6 | 205.3 | 214.4 | 213.8 | 217.4 | 223.1 | 228.5 | 232.3 | 236.0 | 236.8 | 238.9 | 243.9 | 249.4 | 254.3 | 260.7 | 266.7 | 272.8 | 279.2 | 285.6 | 291.9 | 298.2 | 304.4 | 310.7 | 317.3 | 323.8 | 330.4 | 337.0 | 344.0 | 351.1 | 358.3 | 365.6 | 373.2 | 381.1 | 389.2 | 397.4 | 406.1 | 414.9 | 424.0 | 433.4 | 443.1 | 453.1 |
| Annual % Change for Consumer Price Index | N/A | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 4.4% | -0.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% |
| PCE Index (2009=100) | 69.2 | 71 | 72.9 | 74.4 | 76 | 77.5 | 79.1 | 79.8 | 80.7 | 82.6 | 84.5 | 85.5 | 87.2 | 89.1 | 91.6 | 94.3 | 96.3 | 99.7 | 99.7 | 101.3 | 103.5 | 105.7 | 107.2 | 108.8 | 109.4 | 110.3 | 112.2 | 114.5 | 116.6 | 119.3 | 121.9 | 124.6 | 127.4 | 130.2 | 132.8 | 135.4 | 138 | 140.7 | 143.4 | 146.1 | 148.8 | 151.7 | 154.6 | 157.7 | 160.8 | 164 | 167.2 | 170.6 | 174.1 | 177.6 | 181.3 | 185.1 | 188.9 | 192.9 | 197.1 | 201.3 |
| Annual % Change | N/A | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| Prime Interest Rate (%) | 9.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
Source: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, Summer 2018 Forecast.