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Forecast Summary
Summer 2018 Economic Forecast
Forecast Summary
Calendar Years 1990—2046
Download Forecast Summary, Calendar Years (CSV)
| Statistic | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross State Product (Billion CY2009 Dollars) | $595.0 | $603.4 | $628.8 | $659.4 | $691.5 | $715.4 | $756.0 | $816.6 | $867.0 | $901.0 | $930.6 | $954.8 | $968.7 | $976.6 | $1,023.2 | $1,047.0 | $1,111.8 | $1,166.7 | $1,173.7 | $1,166.5 | $1,197.0 | $1,240.1 | $1,310.5 | $1,377.1 | $1,425.3 | $1,488.0 | $1,481.9 | $1,521.0 | $1,588.6 | $1,651.9 | $1,692.7 | $1,732.8 | $1,777.3 | $1,824.9 | $1,874.1 | $1,920.5 | $1,969.5 | $2,021.7 | $2,079.6 | $2,139.3 | $2,199.3 | $2,261.0 | $2,322.5 | $2,383.4 | $2,448.3 | $2,513.0 | $2,580.1 | $2,649.5 | $2,721.3 | $2,797.6 | $2,876.2 | $2,957.4 | $3,042.8 | $3,129.4 | $3,220.2 | $3,314.0 | $3,410.3 |
| Annual % Change for Gross State Product (Billion Calendar Year 2009 Dollars) | N/A | 1.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 0.6% | -0.6% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | -0.4% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| Gross State Product (Billion Current Dollars) | $390.4 | $404.6 | $429.4 | $459.4 | $490.0 | $519.1 | $561.9 | $614.4 | $648.2 | $683.6 | $741.1 | $776.5 | $788.9 | $833.5 | $909.6 | $990.1 | $1,088.3 | $1,179.2 | $1,243.4 | $1,166.5 | $1,243.4 | $1,344.7 | $1,437.9 | $1,536.5 | $1,613.0 | $1,612.0 | $1,601.5 | $1,696.2 | $1,821.9 | $1,934.3 | $2,039.2 | $2,137.8 | $2,238.9 | $2,347.5 | $2,463.9 | $2,584.8 | $2,710.6 | $2,843.1 | $2,987.9 | $3,143.7 | $3,305.1 | $3,471.8 | $3,643.2 | $3,821.3 | $4,009.9 | $4,203.9 | $4,408.6 | $4,618.9 | $4,837.5 | $5,069.1 | $5,312.4 | $5,571.8 | $5,848.4 | $6,137.5 | $6,445.9 | $6,770.8 | $7,111.1 |
| Annual % Change for Gross State Product (Billion Current Dollars) | N/A | 3.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 5.6% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 5.4% | -6.2% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.0% | -0.1% | -0.6% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Personal Income (Billion Current Dollars) | $296.2 | $310.0 | $335.3 | $354.8 | $375.1 | $401.5 | $431.7 | $470.3 | $512.7 | $540.8 | $589.5 | $626.7 | $633.4 | $656.3 | $684.2 | $747.0 | $817.8 | $873.0 | $961.0 | $910.1 | $956.6 | $1,047.0 | $1,125.7 | $1,148.9 | $1,236.2 | $1,284.5 | $1,289.3 | $1,328.7 | $1,393.3 | $1,482.1 | $1,561.1 | $1,641.0 | $1,722.2 | $1,807.4 | $1,896.3 | $1,992.1 | $2,092.2 | $2,193.9 | $2,310.4 | $2,429.2 | $2,559.7 | $2,696.6 | $2,836.9 | $2,983.0 | $3,137.8 | $3,299.6 | $3,469.5 | $3,645.7 | $3,826.7 | $4,015.4 | $4,213.3 | $4,418.3 | $4,636.8 | $4,867.9 | $5,111.1 | $5,367.1 | $5,635.6 |
| Annual % Change for Personal Income | N/A | 4.7% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 1.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 10.1% | -5.3% | 5.1% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 2.1% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 0.4% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) | 7,125.40 | 7,205.20 | 7,300.90 | 7,514.70 | 7,785.50 | 8,058.50 | 8,292.10 | 8,643.70 | 8,973.40 | 9,189.10 | 9,461.50 | 9,544.30 | 9,447.10 | 9,401.60 | 9,527.00 | 9,771.20 | 10,097.50 | 10,427.70 | 10,642.20 | 10,340.90 | 10,374.10 | 10,603.50 | 10,914.00 | 11,240.20 | 11,592.80 | 11,864.60 | 12,012.80 | 12,224.20 | 12,538.10 | 12,838.30 | 13,051.60 | 13,208.00 | 13,345.00 | 13,470.00 | 13,601.00 | 13,742.70 | 13,884.20 | 14,042.00 | 14,215.00 | 14,386.40 | 14,564.40 | 14,729.20 | 14,897.10 | 15,067.90 | 15,250.40 | 15,430.20 | 15,617.00 | 15,802.30 | 15,992.20 | 16,188.70 | 16,401.30 | 16,595.70 | 16,802.30 | 17,012.30 | 17,233.10 | 17,462.20 | 17,697.40 |
| Annual % Change for Nonfarm Employment | N/A | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 0.9% | -1.0% | -0.5% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.1% | -2.8% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| Resident Population (Thousands) | 17,105.10 | 17,444.50 | 17,812.50 | 18,212.00 | 18,612.90 | 19,005.60 | 19,391.50 | 19,793.50 | 20,206.60 | 20,606.40 | 20,991.50 | 21,365.70 | 21,731.00 | 22,077.70 | 22,443.30 | 22,898.10 | 23,426.80 | 23,891.90 | 24,371.60 | 24,857.10 | 25,293.30 | 25,700.60 | 26,126.40 | 26,543.30 | 27,018.60 | 27,508.00 | 27,951.70 | 28,356.70 | 28,775.20 | 29,213.00 | 29,656.10 | 30,099.60 | 30,543.40 | 30,986.80 | 31,428.90 | 31,869.00 | 32,306.50 | 32,741.40 | 33,173.50 | 33,603.00 | 34,030.00 | 34,454.10 | 34,875.10 | 35,293.30 | 35,708.90 | 36,122.50 | 36,534.40 | 36,944.50 | 37,352.70 | 37,759.10 | 38,163.50 | 38,566.10 | 38,966.70 | 39,365.80 | 39,763.20 | 40,158.90 | 40,553.00 |
| Annual % Change for Resident Population | N/A | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% |
| NYMEX Oil Price ($per Barrel) | $24.50 | $21.46 | $20.57 | $18.48 | $17.18 | $18.40 | $22.01 | $20.61 | $14.43 | $19.24 | $30.20 | $25.90 | $26.08 | $31.04 | $41.40 | $56.56 | $66.22 | $72.31 | $99.65 | $61.80 | $79.53 | $95.12 | $94.21 | $97.97 | $93.00 | $48.79 | $43.32 | $50.80 | $66.00 | $62.00 | $59.00 | $56.00 | $55.00 | $55.00 | $55.00 | $57.00 | $63.00 | $71.00 | $78.00 | $82.00 | $85.00 | $87.00 | $88.00 | $88.00 | $88.00 | $88.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 |
| NYMEX Nat. Gas Price ($per Million BTUs) | $1.95 | $1.69 | $2.51 | $2.47 | $2.16 | $2.31 | $4.31 | $4.03 | $3.36 | $5.50 | $6.19 | $9.00 | $6.99 | $7.12 | $8.90 | $4.16 | $4.40 | $4.03 | $2.82 | $3.73 | $4.28 | $2.63 | $2.55 | $3.00 | $2.90 | $2.90 | $2.80 | $2.90 | $3.00 | $3.20 | $3.45 | $3.55 | $3.60 | $3.60 | $3.60 | $3.60 | $3.65 | $3.65 | $3.65 | $3.65 | $3.65 | $3.65 | $3.65 | $3.70 | $3.70 | $3.70 | $3.70 | $3.70 | $3.70 | $3.70 | $3.75 | $3.75 | $3.75 | ||||
| U.S. ECONOMY | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gross Domestic Product (Billion CY2009 Dollars) | $8,955.0 | $8,948.4 | $9,266.6 | $9,521.0 | $9,905.4 | $10,174.8 | $10,561.0 | $11,034.9 | $11,525.9 | $12,065.9 | $12,559.7 | $12,682.2 | $12,908.8 | $13,271.1 | $13,773.5 | $14,234.2 | $14,613.8 | $14,873.7 | $14,830.4 | $14,418.7 | $14,783.8 | $15,020.6 | $15,354.6 | $15,612.2 | $16,013.3 | $16,471.5 | $16,716.2 | $17,096.2 | $17,581.6 | $18,074.5 | $18,425.6 | $18,730.9 | $19,038.5 | $19,361.4 | $19,704.0 | $20,061.3 | $20,423.4 | $20,800.2 | $21,207.2 | $21,610.7 | $22,027.2 | $22,452.6 | $22,875.2 | $23,308.7 | $23,756.7 | $24,207.7 | $24,659.4 | $25,124.2 | $25,599.5 | $26,080.3 | $26,565.2 | $27,048.1 | $27,554.0 | $28,077.3 | $28,618.1 | $29,172.7 | $29,732.9 |
| Annual % Change for Gross Domestic Product | N/A | -0.1% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.8% | -0.3% | -2.8% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) | 130.7 | 136.2 | 140.3 | 144.5 | 148.2 | 152.4 | 156.9 | 160.5 | 163 | 166.6 | 172.2 | 177 | 179.9 | 184 | 188.9 | 195.3 | 201.6 | 207.3 | 215.3 | 214.6 | 218.1 | 224.9 | 229.6 | 233 | 236.7 | 237 | 240 | 245.1 | 251.3 | 255.9 | 262.2 | 268.2 | 274.4 | 280.8 | 287.2 | 293.5 | 299.7 | 305.9 | 312.4 | 318.9 | 325.5 | 332 | 338.8 | 345.8 | 352.8 | 360.1 | 367.5 | 375.2 | 383.1 | 391.2 | 399.6 | 408.3 | 417.2 | 426.3 | 435.8 | 445.6 | 455.6 |
| Annual % Change for Consumer Price Index | N/A | 4.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.9% | -0.3% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| PCE Index (2009=100) | 67.4 | 69.7 | 71.5 | 73.3 | 74.8 | 76.4 | 78 | 79.3 | 79.9 | 81.1 | 83.1 | 84.7 | 85.9 | 87.6 | 89.7 | 92.3 | 94.7 | 97.1 | 100.1 | 100 | 101.7 | 104.1 | 106.1 | 107.5 | 109.2 | 109.5 | 110.8 | 112.7 | 115.1 | 117.2 | 119.9 | 122.6 | 125.3 | 128.1 | 130.8 | 133.5 | 136.1 | 138.7 | 141.4 | 144 | 146.8 | 149.5 | 152.4 | 155.4 | 158.4 | 161.6 | 164.8 | 168.1 | 171.5 | 174.9 | 178.5 | 182.2 | 186 | 189.9 | 194 | 198.1 | 202.4 |
| Annual % Change | N/A | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | -0.1% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% |
| Prime Interest Rate (%) | 10.0% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
Source: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, Summer 2018 Forecast.