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Economic Summary
2018-19 Economic Forecast
Economic Summary
Fiscal Years 1991 to 2046
Download Forecast Summary, Fiscal Years 1991 to 2046 (XLSX)
| Statistic | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross State Product (Billion 2012$) | 613.4 | 634.2 | 666.6 | 697.1 | 726.6 | 756.6 | 847.8 | 918.6 | 955.1 | 992.9 | 1,016.9 | 1,038.6 | 1,041.2 | 1,091.4 | 1,125.3 | 1,186.2 | 1,261.3 | 1,276.0 | 1,274.4 | 1,292.7 | 1,329.7 | 1,394.6 | 1,459.9 | 1,497.3 | 1,577.6 | 1,595.3 | 1,607.2 | 1,655.1 | 1,721.3 | 1,768.8 | 1,808.8 | 1,850.6 | 1,894.2 | 1,940.5 | 1,987.7 | 2,038.3 | 2,092.9 | 2,152.9 | 2,215.2 | 2,275.5 | 2,336.5 | 2,397.3 | 2,459.2 | 2,525.0 | 2,592.2 | 2,659.4 | 2,729.1 | 2,801.8 | 2,877.8 | 2,957.9 | 3,039.1 | 3,122.7 | 3,209.1 | 3,298.7 | 3,391.6 | 3,487.8 |
| Annual % Change | #N/A | 3.4 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 1.2 | (0.1) | 1.4 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Gross State Product (Bil. Current $) | 398.9 | 420.3 | 450.5 | 479.9 | 510.1 | 548.1 | 598.4 | 637.8 | 669.4 | 726.5 | 768.0 | 781.9 | 814.3 | 887.7 | 963.0 | 1,063.4 | 1,152.9 | 1,238.3 | 1,171.0 | 1,216.4 | 1,306.7 | 1,390.4 | 1,482.2 | 1,553.3 | 1,571.8 | 1,558.8 | 1,622.4 | 1,737.4 | 1,840.3 | 1,948.2 | 2,058.9 | 2,156.9 | 2,252.8 | 2,354.3 | 2,463.7 | 2,586.0 | 2,716.0 | 2,859.6 | 3,012.1 | 3,166.5 | 3,328.2 | 3,495.9 | 3,674.1 | 3,864.4 | 4,063.7 | 4,271.4 | 4,489.0 | 4,717.9 | 4,959.1 | 5,215.7 | 5,485.1 | 5,770.9 | 6,072.3 | 6,391.6 | 6,727.1 | 7,080.6 |
| Annual % Change | #N/A | 5.4 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 8.4 | 7.4 | (5.4) | 3.9 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 1.2 | (0.8) | 4.1 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.3 |
| Personal Income (Billion Current $) | 305.9 | 329.0 | 350.2 | 368.7 | 395.5 | 423.6 | 460.0 | 504.2 | 533.7 | 578.5 | 619.2 | 629.3 | 649.3 | 676.6 | 729.7 | 804.9 | 857.5 | 938.6 | 925.6 | 945.7 | 1,037.6 | 1,111.3 | 1,156.4 | 1,227.5 | 1,280.3 | 1,282.5 | 1,325.8 | 1,391.3 | 1,462.6 | 1,535.8 | 1,611.7 | 1,690.2 | 1,772.1 | 1,855.8 | 1,947.7 | 2,045.8 | 2,145.8 | 2,257.4 | 2,374.0 | 2,500.5 | 2,635.0 | 2,772.8 | 2,915.7 | 3,067.0 | 3,225.1 | 3,391.4 | 3,564.7 | 3,742.4 | 3,926.9 | 4,120.7 | 4,321.1 | 4,534.3 | 4,760.2 | 4,997.6 | 5,248.1 | 5,510.7 |
| Annual % Change | #N/A | 7.5 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 6.5 | 9.5 | (1.4) | 2.2 | 9.7 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 0.2 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) | 7,194.1 | 7,266.8 | 7,457.8 | 7,705.8 | 8,000.9 | 8,225.2 | 8,553.1 | 8,896.2 | 9,139.7 | 9,396.1 | 9,561.5 | 9,457.5 | 9,407.1 | 9,479.4 | 9,698.8 | 10,017.2 | 10,346.0 | 10,617.7 | 10,438.6 | 10,322.7 | 10,546.1 | 10,823.8 | 11,163.5 | 11,492.0 | 11,820.5 | 11,974.4 | 12,162.8 | 12,480.8 | 12,796.4 | 13,041.9 | 13,207.4 | 13,354.0 | 13,498.5 | 13,628.4 | 13,754.3 | 13,898.0 | 14,062.6 | 14,237.4 | 14,412.1 | 14,594.8 | 14,767.7 | 14,944.7 | 15,120.8 | 15,308.8 | 15,496.7 | 15,683.6 | 15,867.5 | 16,052.9 | 16,242.4 | 16,449.1 | 16,637.3 | 16,836.6 | 17,041.3 | 17,255.1 | 17,478.2 | 17,712.7 |
| Annual % Change | #N/A | 1.0 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.8 | (1.1) | (0.5) | 0.8 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.6 | (1.7) | (1.1) | 2.2 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Resident Population (Thousands) | 17,356.6 | 17,717.0 | 18,111.4 | 18,513.3 | 18,908.6 | 19,293.8 | 19,691.4 | 20,104.3 | 20,507.5 | 20,896.8 | 21,272.5 | 21,642.1 | 21,989.8 | 22,349.9 | 22,744.9 | 23,327.6 | 23,773.2 | 24,250.4 | 24,738.1 | 25,190.4 | 25,596.0 | 26,022.0 | 26,433.8 | 26,896.6 | 27,389.2 | 27,845.5 | 28,255.3 | 28,668.5 | 29,102.0 | 29,544.1 | 29,986.8 | 30,429.6 | 30,872.0 | 31,313.2 | 31,752.4 | 32,189.1 | 32,623.0 | 33,054.2 | 33,482.7 | 33,908.7 | 34,331.9 | 34,752.1 | 35,169.4 | 35,584.0 | 35,996.6 | 36,407.5 | 36,816.5 | 37,223.7 | 37,629.2 | 38,032.6 | 38,434.1 | 38,833.7 | 39,231.6 | 39,627.9 | 40,022.5 | 40,415.3 |
| Annual % Change | #N/A | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.7 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| NYMEX Oil Price ($ per Barrel) | $25.42 | $20.91 | $20.13 | $16.86 | $18.27 | $19.60 | $22.27 | $17.13 | $14.95 | $26.70 | $29.76 | $23.74 | $30.11 | $34.56 | $50.31 | $65.63 | $63.45 | $101.93 | $64.09 | $76.32 | $91.25 | $94.28 | $93.65 | $101.05 | $64.94 | $41.40 | $48.77 | $60.58 | $53.00 | $50.00 | $53.00 | $57.00 | $56.00 | $55.00 | $56.00 | $60.00 | $68.00 | $75.00 | $81.00 | $85.00 | $86.00 | $87.00 | $88.00 | $88.00 | $88.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 |
| NYMEX Nat. Gas Price($ per Million BTUs) | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | $1.66 | $2.11 | $2.43 | $2.47 | $2.05 | $2.86 | $5.41 | $2.84 | $4.80 | $5.55 | $6.57 | $9.28 | $7.06 | $8.47 | $5.91 | $4.43 | $4.20 | $3.10 | $3.48 | $4.18 | $3.34 | $2.30 | $3.04 | $2.88 | $3.15 | $2.90 | $2.75 | $3.00 | $3.05 | $3.25 | $3.50 | $3.60 | $3.60 | $3.60 | $3.60 | $3.60 | $3.60 | $3.65 | $3.65 | $3.65 | $3.65 | $3.65 | $3.65 | $3.65 | $3.70 | $3.70 | $3.70 | $3.70 | $3.70 | $3.70 | $3.75 | $3.75 |
| U. S. ECONOMY Gross Domestic Product (Billion 2012$) | 9,328.2 | 9,581.7 | 9,887.4 | 10,248.6 | 10,572.5 | 10,912.7 | 11,396.1 | 11,895.4 | 12,462.8 | 13,035.3 | 13,257.0 | 13,423.5 | 13,732.5 | 14,290.3 | 14,798.3 | 15,240.7 | 15,549.8 | 15,713.2 | 15,201.8 | 15,500.1 | 15,777.3 | 16,138.2 | 16,389.2 | 16,787.3 | 17,301.1 | 17,577.2 | 17,940.8 | 18,427.0 | 18,971.1 | 19,371.6 | 19,677.6 | 20,018.3 | 20,366.0 | 20,707.0 | 21,072.3 | 21,473.5 | 21,894.5 | 22,333.3 | 22,785.1 | 23,210.4 | 23,638.8 | 24,072.9 | 24,524.8 | 24,992.4 | 25,459.0 | 25,934.7 | 26,412.4 | 26,902.0 | 27,397.7 | 27,909.9 | 28,423.5 | 28,956.0 | 29,505.1 | 30,066.6 | 30,638.1 | 31,215.8 |
| Annual % Change | #N/A | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | (3.3) | 2.0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Consumer Price Index (1982-4=100) | 135.2 | 139.2 | 143.5 | 147.3 | 151.4 | 155.6 | 159.8 | 162.4 | 165.5 | 170.7 | 176.2 | 178.9 | 183.1 | 187.3 | 193.5 | 200.6 | 205.3 | 214.4 | 213.8 | 217.4 | 223.1 | 228.5 | 232.3 | 236.0 | 236.8 | 238.9 | 243.9 | 249.8 | 256.0 | 261.7 | 267.9 | 273.6 | 279.3 | 285.2 | 291.1 | 296.8 | 302.9 | 309.3 | 315.8 | 322.7 | 329.8 | 337.0 | 344.3 | 351.8 | 359.3 | 366.8 | 374.7 | 382.9 | 391.3 | 399.9 | 408.6 | 417.7 | 427.1 | 436.7 | 446.3 | 456.3 |
| Annual % Change | #N/A | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 4.4 | (0.3) | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| PCE Index (2012=100) | 65.1 | 66.8 | 68.5 | 70.0 | 71.5 | 72.9 | 74.4 | 75.1 | 76.0 | 77.8 | 79.5 | 80.4 | 82.0 | 83.8 | 86.2 | 88.8 | 90.7 | 93.9 | 93.8 | 95.4 | 97.5 | 99.6 | 101.0 | 102.6 | 103.1 | 103.8 | 105.6 | 107.8 | 110.1 | 112.4 | 114.8 | 117.1 | 119.5 | 121.9 | 124.2 | 126.6 | 129.0 | 131.5 | 134.0 | 136.7 | 139.3 | 142.1 | 144.9 | 147.8 | 150.7 | 153.7 | 156.7 | 159.9 | 163.1 | 166.5 | 169.9 | 173.4 | 177.0 | 180.7 | 184.4 | 188.3 |
| Annual % Change | #N/A | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 3.5 | (0.1) | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Prime Interest Rate (%) | 9.1 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 |
Source: Fall 2018 Forecast. Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.