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Forecast Summary
2018-19 Economic Forecast
Forecast Summary
Calendar Years 1990—2046
Download Forecast Summary, Calendar Years (XLSX)
| Statistic | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross State Product (Billion 2012$) | 608.4 | 616.8 | 642.6 | 673.8 | 706.6 | 731.0 | 772.3 | 872.8 | 928.4 | 965.7 | 998.3 | 1,021.9 | 1,041.8 | 1,048.3 | 1,102.7 | 1,132.8 | 1,210.3 | 1,274.3 | 1,275.8 | 1,271.4 | 1,301.7 | 1,343.8 | 1,411.4 | 1,472.1 | 1,512.4 | 1,590.4 | 1,594.4 | 1,615.8 | 1,672.6 | 1,733.7 | 1,780.0 | 1,818.9 | 1,861.3 | 1,905.5 | 1,952.2 | 2,000.0 | 2,051.4 | 2,107.4 | 2,168.7 | 2,230.4 | 2,290.7 | 2,351.7 | 2,412.8 | 2,475.2 | 2,541.8 | 2,609.0 | 2,676.5 | 2,747.0 | 2,820.4 | 2,897.6 | 2,978.2 | 3,059.8 | 3,144.0 | 3,231.0 | 3,321.6 | 3,415.6 | 3,511.9 |
| Annual % Change | #N/A | 1.4 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 0.1 | (0.3) | 2.4 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Gross State Product (Bil. Current $) | 389.1 | 403.2 | 427.8 | 457.7 | 488.3 | 517.2 | 559.9 | 610.3 | 645.7 | 681.3 | 738.9 | 773.0 | 787.3 | 829.8 | 906.3 | 986.4 | 1,085.3 | 1,178.6 | 1,237.4 | 1,163.4 | 1,237.2 | 1,331.2 | 1,411.4 | 1,502.2 | 1,565.4 | 1,568.6 | 1,565.7 | 1,646.2 | 1,767.4 | 1,863.2 | 1,978.2 | 2,084.6 | 2,180.4 | 2,277.7 | 2,380.4 | 2,493.8 | 2,617.0 | 2,750.8 | 2,897.5 | 3,050.2 | 3,206.4 | 3,369.5 | 3,539.5 | 3,720.5 | 3,913.6 | 4,114.6 | 4,324.9 | 4,545.0 | 4,776.8 | 5,021.9 | 5,281.6 | 5,555.3 | 5,844.7 | 6,150.2 | 6,473.9 | 6,814.2 | 7,170.9 |
| Annual % Change | #N/A | 3.6 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 5.0 | (6.0) | 6.3 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 0.2 | (0.2) | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 |
| Personal Income (Billion Current $) | 296.2 | 310.0 | 335.3 | 354.8 | 375.1 | 401.5 | 431.7 | 470.3 | 514.5 | 541.7 | 589.6 | 625.4 | 632.5 | 655.8 | 686.9 | 747.1 | 820.1 | 871.8 | 956.5 | 911.2 | 966.9 | 1,058.0 | 1,133.8 | 1,160.4 | 1,250.8 | 1,282.4 | 1,287.7 | 1,340.6 | 1,409.5 | 1,480.9 | 1,554.6 | 1,630.9 | 1,710.4 | 1,792.8 | 1,877.4 | 1,971.8 | 2,070.9 | 2,171.5 | 2,286.9 | 2,404.4 | 2,533.6 | 2,669.1 | 2,808.0 | 2,952.6 | 3,105.9 | 3,266.0 | 3,434.2 | 3,608.5 | 3,787.7 | 3,974.5 | 4,170.4 | 4,373.3 | 4,589.6 | 4,818.3 | 5,059.0 | 5,312.5 | 5,578.2 |
| Annual % Change | #N/A | 4.7 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 9.7 | (4.7) | 6.1 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) | 7,125.4 | 7,205.2 | 7,300.9 | 7,514.7 | 7,785.5 | 8,058.5 | 8,292.1 | 8,643.7 | 8,973.4 | 9,189.1 | 9,461.5 | 9,544.3 | 9,447.1 | 9,401.6 | 9,527.0 | 9,771.2 | 10,097.5 | 10,427.7 | 10,642.2 | 10,340.9 | 10,374.1 | 10,603.5 | 10,914.0 | 11,240.2 | 11,592.8 | 11,864.6 | 12,012.8 | 12,224.2 | 12,571.3 | 12,862.6 | 13,090.5 | 13,243.9 | 13,391.1 | 13,532.6 | 13,658.9 | 13,788.5 | 13,936.8 | 14,106.5 | 14,281.3 | 14,454.9 | 14,640.2 | 14,812.3 | 14,988.6 | 15,166.4 | 15,356.3 | 15,543.3 | 15,730.0 | 15,913.0 | 16,099.7 | 16,291.4 | 16,498.8 | 16,686.8 | 16,887.3 | 17,093.2 | 17,310.3 | 17,536.0 | 17,771.1 |
| Annual % Change | #N/A | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | (1.0) | (0.5) | 1.3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.1 | (2.8) | 0.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Resident Population (Thousands) | 17,105.1 | 17,444.5 | 17,812.5 | 18,212.0 | 18,612.9 | 19,005.6 | 19,391.5 | 19,793.5 | 20,206.6 | 20,606.4 | 20,991.5 | 21,365.7 | 21,731.0 | 22,077.7 | 22,443.3 | 22,898.1 | 23,426.8 | 23,891.9 | 24,371.6 | 24,857.1 | 25,293.3 | 25,700.6 | 26,126.4 | 26,543.3 | 27,018.6 | 27,508.0 | 27,951.7 | 28,356.7 | 28,775.0 | 29,212.4 | 29,654.8 | 30,097.5 | 30,540.3 | 30,982.4 | 31,423.2 | 31,861.9 | 32,297.8 | 32,731.1 | 33,161.5 | 33,589.4 | 34,014.7 | 34,437.2 | 34,856.7 | 35,273.3 | 35,687.3 | 36,099.5 | 36,509.9 | 36,918.5 | 37,325.3 | 37,730.2 | 38,133.2 | 38,534.2 | 38,933.4 | 39,330.9 | 39,726.7 | 40,120.8 | 40,513.2 |
| Annual % Change | #N/A | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.3 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| NYMEX Oil Price ($ per Barrel) | $24.50 | $21.46 | $20.57 | $18.48 | $17.18 | $18.40 | $22.01 | $20.61 | $14.43 | $19.24 | $30.20 | $25.90 | $26.08 | $31.04 | $41.40 | $56.56 | $66.22 | $72.31 | $99.65 | $61.80 | $79.53 | $95.12 | $94.21 | $97.97 | $93.00 | $48.79 | $43.32 | $50.95 | $64.43 | $48.00 | $50.00 | $56.00 | $56.00 | $56.00 | $55.00 | $57.00 | $63.00 | $71.00 | $78.00 | $83.00 | $85.00 | $87.00 | $88.00 | $88.00 | $88.00 | $88.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 | $89.00 |
| NYMEX Nat. Gas Price ($ per Million BTUs) | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | $1.95 | $1.69 | $2.51 | $2.47 | $2.16 | $2.31 | $4.31 | $4.03 | $3.36 | $5.50 | $6.19 | $9.00 | $6.99 | $7.12 | $8.90 | $4.16 | $4.40 | $4.03 | $2.82 | $3.73 | $4.28 | $2.63 | $2.55 | $3.02 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $2.75 | $2.90 | $3.00 | $3.15 | $3.40 | $3.55 | $3.60 | $3.60 | $3.60 | $3.60 | $3.60 | $3.65 | $3.65 | $3.65 | $3.65 | $3.65 | $3.65 | $3.65 | $3.70 | $3.70 | $3.70 | $3.70 | $3.70 | $3.70 | $3.70 | $3.75 | $3.75 |
| U. S. ECONOMY | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gross Domestic Product (Billion 2012$) | 9,365.5 | 9,355.4 | 9,684.9 | 9,951.5 | 10,352.4 | 10,630.3 | 11,031.3 | 11,521.9 | 12,038.3 | 12,610.5 | 13,131.0 | 13,262.1 | 13,493.1 | 13,879.1 | 14,406.4 | 14,912.5 | 15,338.3 | 15,626.0 | 15,604.7 | 15,208.8 | 15,598.8 | 15,840.7 | 16,197.0 | 16,495.4 | 16,899.8 | 17,386.7 | 17,659.2 | 18,050.7 | 18,571.3 | 19,081.0 | 19,451.4 | 19,759.1 | 20,106.2 | 20,451.3 | 20,794.6 | 21,169.9 | 21,577.2 | 22,002.3 | 22,446.5 | 22,891.8 | 23,317.7 | 23,746.3 | 24,185.0 | 24,640.5 | 25,108.4 | 25,578.0 | 26,052.8 | 26,534.4 | 27,024.8 | 27,523.6 | 28,037.7 | 28,556.2 | 29,091.5 | 29,644.5 | 30,208.6 | 30,782.1 | 31,267.9 |
| Annual % Change | #N/A | (0.1) | 3.5 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.9 | (0.1) | (2.5) | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Consumer Price Index (1982-4=100) | 130.7 | 136.2 | 140.3 | 144.5 | 148.2 | 152.4 | 156.9 | 160.5 | 163.0 | 166.6 | 172.2 | 177.0 | 179.9 | 184.0 | 188.9 | 195.3 | 201.6 | 207.3 | 215.3 | 214.6 | 218.1 | 224.9 | 229.6 | 233.0 | 236.7 | 237.0 | 240.0 | 245.1 | 251.5 | 257.2 | 263.4 | 269.3 | 275.0 | 280.8 | 286.7 | 292.5 | 298.3 | 304.5 | 310.9 | 317.5 | 324.5 | 331.6 | 338.8 | 346.2 | 353.7 | 361.1 | 368.7 | 376.7 | 384.9 | 393.4 | 402.0 | 410.9 | 420.1 | 429.5 | 439.1 | 448.8 | 458.3 |
| Annual % Change | #N/A | 4.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.8 | (0.3) | 1.6 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| PCE Index (2012=100) | 63.4 | 65.5 | 67.2 | 68.9 | 70.3 | 71.8 | 73.3 | 74.6 | 75.2 | 76.3 | 78.2 | 79.7 | 80.8 | 82.4 | 84.4 | 86.8 | 89.2 | 91.4 | 94.2 | 94.1 | 95.7 | 98.1 | 100.0 | 101.3 | 102.9 | 103.1 | 104.2 | 106.1 | 108.3 | 110.6 | 113.0 | 115.4 | 117.7 | 120.1 | 122.5 | 124.8 | 127.2 | 129.6 | 132.1 | 134.7 | 137.3 | 140.0 | 142.8 | 145.6 | 148.5 | 151.4 | 154.4 | 157.5 | 160.7 | 164.0 | 167.3 | 170.7 | 174.3 | 177.9 | 181.6 | 185.4 | 189.2 |
| Annual % Change | #N/A | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 3.0 | (0.1) | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Prime Interest Rate (%) | 10.0 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 |
Source: Fall 2018 Forecast. Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.