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Economic Summary
Texas Economic Forecast 2017-18
Economic Summary
Fiscal Years 1991—2046
| Year | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross State Product (Billion FY2009 Dollars) | 599.8 | 620.7 | 652.1 | 682.6 | 710.1 | 743.7 | 801.6 | 855.6 | 891.9 | 925.5 | 949.7 | 966.9 | 969.5 | 1,014.30 | 1,040.30 | 1,091.90 | 1,156.30 | 1,171.50 | 1,169.50 | 1,188.80 | 1,225.30 | 1,292.40 | 1,363.00 | 1,411.40 | 1,487.10 | 1,491.90 | 1,536.10 | 1,593.40 | 1,644.60 | 1,693.30 | 1,745.40 | 1,797.80 | 1,853.50 | 1,908.80 | 1,956.80 | 2,005.40 | 2,058.80 | 2,116.50 | 2,179.00 | 2,242.40 | 2,307.40 | 2,373.00 | 2,437.90 | 2,507.00 | 2,575.90 | 2,645.70 | 2,717.90 | 2,792.70 | 2,869.80 | 2,951.40 | 3,033.50 | 3,116.30 | 3,199.90 | 3,286.50 | 3,375.90 | 3,468.00 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross State Product (Billion FY2009 Dollars) | 3.5 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 4 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 5 | 5.9 | 1.3 | -0.2 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 0.3 | 3 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3 | 3.1 | 3 | 3.1 | 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | |
| Gross State Product (Billion Current Dollars) | 400.4 | 421.8 | 452.1 | 481.6 | 511.9 | 549.9 | 602.3 | 640.6 | 671.8 | 728.5 | 771.3 | 784.1 | 817.5 | 891.5 | 965.8 | 1,067.10 | 1,154.70 | 1,242.30 | 1,174.50 | 1,221.70 | 1,317.50 | 1,414.50 | 1,513.40 | 1,599.70 | 1,619.60 | 1,601.60 | 1,698.60 | 1,811.40 | 1,912.60 | 2,016.60 | 2,124.40 | 2,239.50 | 2,359.50 | 2,484.10 | 2,606.80 | 2,732.20 | 2,863.50 | 3,008.00 | 3,161.80 | 3,321.80 | 3,488.90 | 3,662.60 | 3,842.00 | 4,034.80 | 4,233.60 | 4,442.40 | 4,658.80 | 4,884.30 | 5,118.80 | 5,368.60 | 5,629.90 | 5,903.40 | 6,187.00 | 6,487.20 | 6,802.10 | 7,131.40 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross State Product (Billion Current Dollars) | 5.4 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 4.3 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 10.5 | 8.2 | 7.6 | -5.5 | 4 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 7 | 5.7 | 1.2 | -1.1 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5 | 5 | 4.9 | 5 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | |
| Personal Income (Billion Current Dollars) | 305.9 | 329 | 350.2 | 368.7 | 395.5 | 423.6 | 460 | 503 | 532.5 | 578.3 | 619.9 | 630.5 | 649.8 | 675 | 729.1 | 802.8 | 856.9 | 947.3 | 921.1 | 938.6 | 1,026.40 | 1,101.60 | 1,147.50 | 1,210.60 | 1,280.30 | 1,315.20 | 1,364.00 | 1,441.70 | 1,528.00 | 1,617.20 | 1,709.30 | 1,804.90 | 1,903.00 | 2,004.60 | 2,110.40 | 2,220.10 | 2,333.50 | 2,452.60 | 2,582.80 | 2,717.70 | 2,859.10 | 3,006.20 | 3,159.50 | 3,324.10 | 3,498.30 | 3,681.40 | 3,872.10 | 4,068.30 | 4,272.40 | 4,487.60 | 4,710.70 | 4,943.10 | 5,186.80 | 5,442.80 | 5,711.20 | 5,991.40 |
| Annual Percent Change for Personal Income | 7.5 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 8 | 10.1 | 6.7 | 10.6 | -2.8 | 1.9 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 6 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | |
| Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) | 7,194.10 | 7,266.80 | 7,457.80 | 7,705.80 | 8,000.90 | 8,225.20 | 8,553.10 | 8,896.20 | 9,139.70 | 9,395.90 | 9,561.60 | 9,457.40 | 9,407.20 | 9,480.00 | 9,698.70 | 10,016.80 | 10,346.20 | 10,617.70 | 10,438.60 | 10,322.50 | 10,545.90 | 10,824.10 | 11,163.40 | 11,493.90 | 11,824.10 | 11,984.30 | 12,227.40 | 12,479.90 | 12,723.50 | 12,952.90 | 13,153.30 | 13,358.00 | 13,560.90 | 13,747.80 | 13,917.20 | 14,073.60 | 14,233.20 | 14,403.50 | 14,585.90 | 14,771.30 | 14,942.90 | 15,116.80 | 15,283.70 | 15,460.40 | 15,636.00 | 15,814.50 | 15,990.90 | 16,168.50 | 16,349.70 | 16,548.70 | 16,734.20 | 16,917.70 | 17,098.60 | 17,283.30 | 17,473.80 | 17,672.10 |
| Annual Percent Change for Nonfarm Employment | 1 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 4 | 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.8 | -1.1 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.6 | -1.7 | -1.1 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 2 | 2.1 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | |
| Resident Population (Thousands) | 17,356.60 | 17,717.00 | 18,111.40 | 18,513.30 | 18,908.60 | 19,293.80 | 19,691.40 | 20,104.30 | 20,507.50 | 20,896.80 | 21,272.50 | 21,642.10 | 21,989.80 | 22,350.00 | 22,744.90 | 23,327.60 | 23,773.20 | 24,250.40 | 24,738.10 | 25,191.60 | 25,597.60 | 26,017.00 | 26,427.60 | 26,886.70 | 27,365.80 | 27,808.50 | 28,241.40 | 28,675.30 | 29,111.00 | 29,549.50 | 29,989.60 | 30,430.90 | 30,872.70 | 31,314.20 | 31,754.80 | 32,193.70 | 32,630.70 | 33,065.40 | 33,497.80 | 33,928.10 | 34,355.70 | 34,780.40 | 35,202.30 | 35,621.50 | 36,038.80 | 36,454.40 | 36,868.30 | 37,280.50 | 37,691.00 | 38,099.70 | 38,506.60 | 38,911.70 | 39,315.40 | 39,717.50 | 40,118.20 | 40,517.30 |
| Annual Percent Change for Resident Population | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 2 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.7 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 6 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| NYMEX Oil Price ($per Barrel) | $25.42 | $20.91 | $20.13 | $16.86 | $18.27 | $19.60 | $22.27 | $17.13 | $14.95 | $26.70 | $29.76 | $23.74 | $30.11 | $34.56 | $50.31 | $65.63 | $63.45 | $101.93 | $64.09 | $76.32 | $91.25 | $94.28 | $93.65 | $101.05 | $64.94 | $41.40 | $48.77 | $50.00 | $53.00 | $54.85 | $56.06 | $57.23 | $58.84 | $61.07 | $64.20 | $68.51 | $72.59 | $75.59 | $77.74 | $79.27 | $80.35 | $81.11 | $81.64 | $82.01 | $82.27 | $82.45 | $82.58 | $82.66 | $82.72 | $82.76 | $82.79 | $82.81 | $82.83 | $82.84 | $82.84 | $82.85 |
| NYMEX Nat. Gas Price ($per Million BTUs) | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | $1.66 | $2.11 | $2.43 | $2.47 | $2.05 | $2.86 | $5.41 | $2.84 | $4.80 | $5.55 | $6.57 | $9.28 | $7.06 | $8.47 | $5.91 | $4.43 | $4.20 | $3.10 | $3.48 | $4.18 | $3.34 | $2.30 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $2.90 | $2.80 | $2.82 | $2.87 | $2.97 | $3.02 | $3.16 | $3.22 | $3.24 | $3.24 | $3.25 | $3.25 | $3.26 | $3.27 | $3.27 | $3.28 | $3.29 | $3.29 | $3.30 | $3.31 | $3.31 | $3.32 | $3.33 | $3.33 | $3.34 | $3.35 | $3.35 | $3.36 |
| U. S. ECONOMY | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gross U.S. Product (Billion FY2009 Dollars ) | 8,921.20 | 9,169.00 | 9,459.30 | 9,805.70 | 10,117.60 | 10,446.50 | 10,917.10 | 11,385.80 | 11,927.80 | 12,470.70 | 12,675.80 | 12,844.10 | 13,129.90 | 13,668.10 | 14,128.50 | 14,527.90 | 14,805.00 | 14,934.10 | 14,427.50 | 14,684.50 | 14,957.80 | 15,306.10 | 15,509.80 | 15,906.70 | 16,389.70 | 16,640.20 | 16,977.00 | 17,422.90 | 17,863.80 | 18,235.30 | 18,641.10 | 19,031.60 | 19,399.30 | 19,757.70 | 20,113.70 | 20,475.30 | 20,852.10 | 21,257.40 | 21,697.60 | 22,131.80 | 22,585.90 | 23,043.20 | 23,506.90 | 23,982.80 | 24,450.80 | 24,938.80 | 25,433.80 | 25,934.20 | 26,446.60 | 26,965.60 | 27,492.60 | 28,032.40 | 28,588.40 | 29,158.50 | 29,737.30 | 30,322.70 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross Domestic Product | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | -3.4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 3 | 1.5 | 2 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2 | 2.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) | 135.2 | 139.2 | 143.5 | 147.3 | 151.4 | 155.6 | 159.8 | 162.4 | 165.5 | 170.7 | 176.2 | 178.9 | 183.1 | 187.3 | 193.5 | 200.6 | 205.3 | 214.4 | 213.8 | 217.4 | 223.1 | 228.5 | 232.2 | 236 | 236.7 | 238.9 | 243.8 | 247.7 | 252.6 | 259.4 | 266.4 | 273.1 | 280.2 | 287.4 | 294.7 | 302.2 | 309.7 | 317.2 | 324.9 | 332.8 | 340.7 | 348.9 | 357.1 | 365.7 | 374.5 | 383.4 | 392.6 | 402 | 411.5 | 421.3 | 431.3 | 441.6 | 452.2 | 463.2 | 474.4 | 485.8 |
| Annual Percent Change for Consumer Price Index | 3 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 4.4 | -0.3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 2 | 1.6 | 2 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | |
| PCE Index (2009=100) | 69.2 | 71 | 72.9 | 74.4 | 76 | 77.5 | 79.1 | 79.8 | 80.7 | 82.6 | 84.5 | 85.5 | 87.2 | 89.1 | 91.6 | 94.3 | 96.3 | 99.7 | 99.7 | 101.3 | 103.5 | 105.7 | 107.2 | 108.8 | 109.4 | 110.3 | 112.2 | 113.6 | 115.5 | 118.1 | 120.8 | 123.5 | 126.3 | 129.1 | 132 | 134.8 | 137.6 | 140.4 | 143.2 | 146.1 | 149 | 151.9 | 154.9 | 158 | 161.2 | 164.5 | 167.8 | 171.3 | 174.7 | 178.3 | 182 | 185.7 | 189.6 | 193.5 | 197.6 | 201.8 |
| Annual % Change | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 2 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | |
| Prime Interest Rate (%) | 9.1 | 6.7 | 6 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 9 | 8 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 6 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Source: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, Fall 2017 Forecast.