Top navigation skipped
Forecast Summary
Texas Economic Forecast 2016-17
Forecast Summary
Calendar Years 1990—2046
| Year | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042; | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross State Product (Billion CY2009 Dollars) | 595.0 | 603.4 | 628.8 | 659.4 | 691.5 | 715.4 | 756.0 | 816.6 | 867.0 | 901.0 | 930.6 | 954.8 | 968.7 | 976.6 | 1,023.2 | 1,047.0 | 1,111.8 | 1,166.7 | 1,173.7 | 1,166.5 | 1,197.0 | 1,240.1 | 1,310.5 | 1,373.9 | 1,440.3 | 1,509.8 | 1,511.5 | 1,556.2 | 1,600.8 | 1,651.9 | 1,705.8 | 1,758.6 | 1,816.5 | 1,875.9 | 1,932.8 | 1,989.1 | 2,046.9 | 2,111.0 | 2,178.5 | 2,246.8 | 2,316.9 | 2,389.2 | 2,462.7 | 2,537.5 | 2,618.8 | 2,699.2 | 2,781.5 | 2,865.9 | 2,953.1 | 3,045.3 | 3,139.7 | 3,238.8 | 3,340.9 | 3,444.6 | 3,550.4 | 3,659.4 | 3,770.3 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross State Product (Billion CY2009 Dollars) | 1.4 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 0.1 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | |
| Gross State Product (Billion Current Dollars) | 390.4 | 404.6 | 429.4 | 459.4 | 490.0 | 519.1 | 561.9 | 614.4 | 648.2 | 683.6 | 741.1 | 776.5 | 788.9 | 833.5 | 909.6 | 990.1 | 1,088.3 | 1,179.2 | 1,243.4 | 1,166.5 | 1,243.4 | 1,344.7 | 1,437.9 | 1,532.9 | 1,627.9 | 1,630.1 | 1,631.8 | 1,720.3 | 1,801.5 | 1,891.7 | 1,987.9 | 2,084.8 | 2,190.7 | 2,301.9 | 2,419.8 | 2,542.7 | 2,668.7 | 2,802.9 | 2,943.2 | 3,089.4 | 3,242.9 | 3,404.6 | 3,574.0 | 3,750.2 | 3,939.6 | 4,134.0 | 4,338.4 | 4,549.3 | 4,769.9 | 5,003.1 | 5,250.8 | 5,517.3 | 5,798.3 | 6,091.9 | 6,401.0 | 6,725.9 | 7,063.5 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross State Product (Billion Current Dollars) | 3.6 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 5.6 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 5.4 | -6.2 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | |
| Personal Income (Billion Current Dollars) | 296.2 | 310.0 | 335.3 | 354.8 | 375.1 | 401.5 | 431.7 | 470.3 | 512.7 | 540.8 | 589.5 | 626.7 | 633.4 | 656.3 | 684.2 | 747.0 | 817.8 | 873.0 | 961.0 | 910.1 | 956.6 | 1,047.0 | 1,125.7 | 1,148.9 | 1,234.4 | 1,289.6 | 1,323.9 | 1,388.1 | 1,456.5 | 1,529.7 | 1,604.7 | 1,686.0 | 1,769.4 | 1,857.0 | 1,950.2 | 2,047.5 | 2,147.2 | 2,251.6 | 2,365.2 | 2,482.4 | 2,607.3 | 2,738.6 | 2,875.4 | 3,017.6 | 3,170.8 | 3,333.6 | 3,503.9 | 3,680.6 | 3,862.8 | 4,053.6 | 4,255.2 | 4,467.0 | 4,691.0 | 4,927.0 | 5,174.4 | 5,432.8 | 5,701.1 |
| Annual Percent Change for Personal Income | 4.7 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 1.1 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 10.1 | -5.3 | 5.1 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 2.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | |
| Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) | 7,098.5 | 7,177.9 | 7,272.4 | 7,485.1 | 7,755.1 | 8,027.0 | 8,260.8 | 8,611.8 | 8,940.2 | 9,157.0 | 9,429.1 | 9,511.7 | 9,413.4 | 9,368.0 | 9,493.5 | 9,736.7 | 10,062.7 | 10,392.7 | 10,606.8 | 10,304.6 | 10,336.6 | 10,567.4 | 10,877.1 | 11,204.6 | 11,559.7 | 11,839.2 | 12,020.4 | 12,232.1 | 12,457.2 | 12,668.2 | 12,875.1 | 13,066.7 | 13,297.1 | 13,538.7 | 13,767.5 | 13,974.4 | 14,165.7 | 14,360.5 | 14,552.2 | 14,741.6 | 14,935.4 | 15,120.4 | 15,306.0 | 15,484.5 | 15,677.7 | 15,874.0 | 16,071.9 | 16,260.5 | 16,448.8 | 16,640.2 | 16,845.7 | 17,035.7 | 17,236.5 | 17,446.3 | 17,665.6 | 17,892.7 | 18,120.5 |
| Annual Percent Change for Nonfarm Employment | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | -1.0 | -0.5 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.1 | -2.8 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | |
| Resident Population (Thousands) | 17,105.1 | 17,444.5 | 17,812.5 | 18,212.0 | 18,612.9 | 19,005.6 | 19,391.5 | 19,793.5 | 20,206.6 | 20,606.4 | 20,991.5 | 21,365.7 | 21,731.0 | 22,077.7 | 22,443.3 | 22,898.1 | 23,426.8 | 23,891.9 | 24,371.6 | 24,857.1 | 25,296.7 | 25,710.4 | 26,139.6 | 26,564.7 | 27,041.1 | 27,529.1 | 28,006.4 | 28,479.8 | 28,956.1 | 29,431.5 | 29,903.8 | 30,372.4 | 30,840.4 | 31,307.9 | 31,774.6 | 32,240.3 | 32,705.0 | 33,169.3 | 33,633.4 | 34,095.8 | 34,556.3 | 35,015.2 | 35,472.6 | 35,928.8 | 36,384.4 | 36,840.2 | 37,296.4 | 37,753.4 | 38,097.0 | 38,441.6 | 38,902.0 | 39,363.6 | 39,826.6 | 40,291.2 | 40,757.9 | 41,226.6 | 41,697.6 |
| Annual Percent Change for Resident Population | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.3 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 |
| NYMEX Oil Price ($per Barrel) | $24.50 | $21.46 | $20.57 | $18.48 | $17.18 | $18.40 | $22.01 | $20.61 | $14.43 | $19.24 | $30.20 | $25.90 | $26.08 | $31.04 | $41.40 | $56.56 | $66.22 | $72.31 | $99.65 | $61.80 | $79.53 | $95.12 | $94.21 | $97.97 | $93.00 | $48.79 | $42.40 | $51.12 | $57.12 | $60.41 | $62.27 | $63.50 | $64.99 | $67.06 | $69.94 | $74.01 | $79.05 | $83.10 | $86.04 | $88.14 | $89.63 | $90.68 | $91.41 | $91.93 | $92.28 | $92.53 | $92.71 | $92.83 | $92.91 | $92.97 | $93.01 | $93.04 | $93.06 | $93.07 | $93.08 | $93.09 | $93.10 |
| NYMEX Nat. Gas Price ($per Million BTUs) | NA | NA | NA | NA | $1.95 | $1.69 | $2.51 | $2.47 | $2.16 | $2.31 | $4.31 | $4.03 | $3.36 | $5.50 | $6.19 | $9.00 | $6.99 | $7.12 | $8.90 | $4.16 | $4.40 | $4.03 | $2.82 | $3.73 | $4.28 | $2.63 | $2.55 | $3.25 | $2.91 | $2.91 | $3.03 | $3.16 | $3.36 | $3.60 | $3.80 | $3.99 | $4.06 | $4.07 | $4.08 | $4.09 | $4.10 | $4.11 | $4.12 | $4.12 | $4.13 | $4.14 | $4.15 | $4.16 | $4.17 | $4.17 | $4.18 | $4.19 | $4.20 | $4.21 | $4.22 | $4.22 | $4.23 |
| U. S. ECONOMY | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gross Domestic Product (Billion CY2009 Dollars ) | 8,955.0 | 8,948.4 | 9,266.5 | 9,521.0 | 9,905.5 | 10,174.8 | 10,561.0 | 11,034.9 | 11,525.9 | 12,065.9 | 12,559.7 | 12,682.3 | 12,908.8 | 13,271.1 | 13,773.5 | 14,234.3 | 14,613.8 | 14,873.8 | 14,830.4 | 14,418.8 | 14,783.8 | 15,020.6 | 15,354.6 | 15,612.2 | 15,982.3 | 16,397.2 | 16,652.2 | 17,034.6 | 17,482.8 | 17,883.1 | 18,247.5 | 18,645.3 | 19,060.1 | 19,474.9 | 19,886.1 | 20,278.4 | 20,654.0 | 21,057.7 | 21,486.3 | 21,911.0 | 22,348.8 | 22,794.6 | 23,242.3 | 23,698.3 | 24,181.4 | 24,670.9 | 25,163.0 | 25,660.7 | 26,174.6 | 26,693.5 | 27,232.9 | 27,782.9 | 28,334.9 | 28,904.3 | 29,478.9 | 30,058.3 | 30,629.5 |
| Annual Percent Change for Gross Domestic Product | -0.1 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.8 | -0.3 | -2.8 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | |
| Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) | 130.7 | 136.2 | 140.3 | 144.5 | 148.2 | 152.4 | 156.9 | 160.5 | 163.0 | 166.6 | 172.2 | 177.0 | 179.9 | 184.0 | 188.9 | 195.3 | 201.6 | 207.3 | 215.3 | 214.6 | 218.1 | 224.9 | 229.6 | 233.0 | 236.7 | 237.0 | 240.1 | 246.2 | 252.0 | 258.3 | 265.2 | 272.2 | 279.3 | 286.5 | 293.6 | 300.9 | 308.3 | 315.9 | 323.4 | 331.0 | 338.9 | 347.1 | 355.5 | 364.1 | 372.9 | 381.9 | 391.1 | 400.5 | 410.3 | 420.2 | 430.5 | 441.0 | 451.8 | 462.8 | 474.2 | 485.8 | 497.7 |
| Annual Percent Change for Consumer Price Index | 4.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.8 | -0.3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | |
| PCE Index (2009=100) | 67.4 | 69.7 | 71.5 | 73.3 | 74.8 | 76.4 | 78.0 | 79.3 | 79.9 | 81.1 | 83.1 | 84.7 | 85.9 | 87.6 | 89.7 | 92.3 | 94.7 | 97.1 | 100.1 | 100.0 | 101.7 | 104.1 | 106.1 | 107.5 | 109.2 | 109.5 | 110.7 | 112.7 | 114.8 | 117.2 | 119.6 | 122.1 | 124.7 | 127.4 | 130.0 | 132.8 | 135.5 | 138.4 | 141.2 | 144.1 | 147.1 | 150.1 | 153.3 | 156.5 | 159.8 | 163.1 | 166.6 | 170.1 | 173.6 | 177.3 | 181.1 | 184.9 | 188.8 | 192.8 | 196.9 | 201.1 | 205.4 |
| Annual % Change | 3.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 3.1 | -0.1 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | |
| Prime Interest Rate (%) | 10.0 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
Source: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts and IHS Global Insight, Inc.