Young Texans: Demographic Overview PART 1 OF A TWO-PART SERIES

by Olga Garza, David Green, Spencer Grubbs and Shannon Halbrook Published February 2020

Texas is growing fast, and unlike many other states, its young population is growing as well. According to U.S. Census Bureau data, one of every 10 persons under the age of 18 in the U.S. lives in Texas.

This is the first of a two-part series on young Texans. In this issue, we’ll take a look at what’s driving our state’s population growth and the demographic characteristics of young Texans. Next month, we’ll explore the educational landscape and job prospects for this growing segment of our population.

What Drives Population Growth

The Census Bureau estimated Texas’ total population at 29 million in 2019, and the Texas Demographic Center (TDC) projects it will rise to about 47.3 million by 2050. In addition to the “natural” increase driven by births, this surge is being driven by people attracted to Texas by our strong economy.

Thus, population growth in Texas is based on two elements: natural increase and net migration from other states and nations.

Natural increase occurs when the state’s birth rate is higher than its death rate. Natural increase is the primary source of Texas population growth, although it has declined somewhat in recent years — from nearly 213,600 additional residents in 2011 to about 175,900 in 2019 — according to Census Bureau estimates. Texas’ natural increase in 2019, however, ranked second only to California’s, the nation’s most populous state.

Net migration is the sum of domestic migration and international migration minus out-migration (i.e., those leaving the state). Since 2011, total net migration to Texas has varied, reaching a recent peak in 2015, receding sharply thereafter and then surging again in 2019 (Exhibit 1). Net domestic migration followed a similar pattern, falling sharply after 2015 and then coming back strongly, increasing by nearly 50 percent in 2019. International migration, meanwhile, has fallen by nearly 45 percent since 2015.

Even so, between 2010 and 2019, Texas saw the second-highest cumulative net migration among states, with more than 1.9 million new residents (Exhibit 2). In 2018 (most recent data available), Texas’ largest source of net domestic migration was California, with more than 48,000, followed by Florida, Missouri and Maryland.

Within the state, TDC projects the largest population increases around Texas’ thriving urban areas, as expected, but also in areas of West Texas and the Panhandle (Exhibit 3). Some areas of the Permian Basin region, in fact, are expected to see more than 300 percent population growth by 2050, driven largely by the area’s oil industry.

Exhibit 1: Elements of Population Growth in Texas, 2011-2019

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

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Exhibit 2: Cumulative Net Migration, April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2019: Top and Bottom Five States

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

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Older, but Younger

Texas’ population is growing across all population groups. Between 2010 and 2018, Texas added about 3.5 million residents, more than any other state. That’s a 13.9 percent increase, more than twice the nation’s 5.8 percent growth. Texas was one of the fastest-growing states in this period — a remarkable feat considering the state’s already large population.

Texas is aging as the huge baby-boom generation enters its retirement years, as is the nation and the entire developed world. In the 2010-2018 period, the number of Texans aged 65 and older rose by 1 million, a 38.5 percent increase; in the U.S., growth for this age group was 30.2 percent.

Where Texas stands out, however, is its under-18 population growth.

Since 2010, Texas saw the highest rate of under-18 population growth among the six most populous states and the second-highest in the nation, behind North Dakota. In four of the six most populous states, the under-18 population actually fell in this period — as it did in the U.S. as a whole (Exhibit 4).

Exhibit 4: Change in the Under-18 Population of the U.S. and the Six Largest States, 2010-2018

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

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In numerical terms, Texas’ increase of 520,342 children between 2010 and 2018 topped that of all other states and far exceeded second-place Florida’s increase of 231,588. The nation’s total under-18 population fell by more than 700,000.

Looking Toward 2050

TDC projections through 2050 show these under-18 population growth trends continuing steadily. In the state as a whole, TDC predicts a 43 percent rise in the under-18 population by 2050, or 3.2 million more children. That’s more than seven times the 5.8 percent growth rate expected for the nation’s child population (Exhibit 5). By 2050, 22.7 percent of Texas’ population will be under 18.

Unsurprisingly, TDC expects urban counties to top the list in numerical growth, with Harris County alone adding more than half a million children by 2050. Most of the 10 Texas counties with the highest projected under-18 growth will more than double their child populations (Exhibit 6).

Exhibit 7 lists the 10 counties TDC expects to have the fastest rate of under-18 growth. Andrews County, near Midland and Odessa, could see its under-18 population more than quadruple. In Kendall County, north of San Antonio, and Hays County, part of the Austin-Round Rock metropolitan area, the number of children could triple.

Exhibit 6: Top Texas Counties for Projected Under-18 Population Growth, 2020-2050

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Texas Demographic Center

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Exhibit 7: Texas Counties with the Fastest Projected Under-18 Population Growth, 2020-2050

Source: Texas Demographic Center

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Race and Ethnicity

In the last decade, Texas and Florida both saw huge increases in their Hispanic child populations, and the Asian population rose substantially in Texas and California as well. But Texas is the only one of the six largest states to show an increase among all racial and ethnic groups within its under-18 population (Exhibit 8).

Exhibit 8: Change in Under-18 Population by Race/Ethnicity, Six Largest States, 2008-2018

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

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Texas is an ethnically diverse state, and current growth trends will make it more so. Through 2050, Texas will see its largest under-18 population increases among Hispanics (about 2 million children) and Asians (almost 1 million). The number of “Non-Hispanic Other” children — which, according to TDC, refers mainly to those who identify as two or more races — is expected to triple. Meanwhile, the population of white children in Texas is projected to show almost no growth through 2050 (Exhibit 9).

In the next 30 years, TDC expects Texas’ under-18 population to remain nearly 50 percent Hispanic, a considerably higher proportion than in the U.S. as a whole. Substantial increases in Asian and “Non-Hispanic Other” children will offset a proportional decline of almost 10 percent among white children by 2050.

The U.S. Census Bureau projects the nationwide share of Hispanic children to rise from 24.9 percent to 32.0 percent in 2060, while that of white children will fall from 51.1 percent to 36.5 percent.

Exhibit 9: Projected Texas Under-18 Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2020-2050

Source: Texas Demographic Center

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Today’s Youth, Tomorrow’s Workforce

Today’s rapid growth in Texas’ number of young people will boost our working-aged population in the future. The number of Texans aged 25 to 54 — generally considered the prime working years — is increasing at a far greater pace than in the U.S. as a whole. From 2010 to 2033, this population is expected to rise by 35 percent in Texas, compared to 9.6 percent in the U.S. Texas’ share of the entire U.S. population for this age group is expected to rise from 8.3 percent to 10.2 percent in 2033. In other words, Texas’ share of all Americans of working age will increase significantly (Exhibit 10).

Exhibit 10: Percent Change in Prime Working-Aged Population (25-54), Texas vs U.S., 2010-2033

Source: JobsEQ and U.S. Census Bureau

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The wave of baby-boom retirements is likely to slow economic growth in the U.S. and throughout much of the world. By definition, retirees produce less in economic terms, and they tend to spend less as well.

That said, given the rapid expansion in Texas’ young population and the state’s continuing role as an immigration magnet, our workforce is likely to help offset this transition — assuming it has the education and skills it needs to succeed in a challenging environment.

In next month’s issue of Fiscal Notes, look for the second and final part of this series on young Texans. FN

For detailed information on the demographic makeup of the Texas population, visit the Texas Demographic Center.