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The Upper East Region2018 Regional Report
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The 23-county Upper East Region encompasses about 16,000 square miles in the northeast corner of Texas, stretching from the Arkansas and Louisiana borders on the east to Cedar Creek Reservoir in the west. The region has a population density of 74 people per square mile, less than the state average of 108 people per square mile. The Upper East Region includes three metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs): the Longview MSA, consisting of the counties of Gregg, Rusk and Upshur; the Texarkana MSA, which consists of Bowie County; and the Tyler MSA, which consists of Smith County.
Counties in the region not associated with an MSA are Anderson, Camp, Cass, Cherokee, Delta, Franklin, Harrison, Henderson, Hopkins, Lamar, Marion, Morris, Panola, Rains, Red River, Titus, Van Zandt and Wood. The economic core of the Upper East region is the city of Tyler (Smith County). The Tyler MSA has a population of about 228,000.
This report examines regional economic trends including population, personal income, jobs and wages, and education, as well as economic conditions unique to the Upper East Region.
Population
The Upper East Region’s estimated total population in 2017 was 1.14 million, or nearly 4 percent of the state’s total population. This is an increase of 3 percent (more than 32,000 people) since the 2010 census. An estimated 20 percent of the region’s population is concentrated in the Tyler MSA, representing slightly less than 1 percent of the state’s population.
From 2010 to 2017, the region’s population grew at a slower pace than did the state’s as a whole. While the population of each county in the region changed during this period (Exhibit 1), Rains and Smith counties outpaced all others, growing by about 8 percent each, slightly less than the state growth rate.
| County | 2010 Census | Estimate (as of July 2017) | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anderson | 58,458 | 57,741 | -1.2% |
| Bowie | 92,565 | 94,012 | 1.6% |
| Camp | 12,401 | 12,855 | 3.7% |
| Cass | 30,464 | 30,012 | -1.5% |
| Cherokee | 50,845 | 52,240 | 2.7% |
| Delta | 5,231 | 5,298 | 1.3% |
| Franklin | 10,605 | 10,767 | 1.5% |
| Gregg | 121,730 | 123,367 | 1.3% |
| Harrison | 65,631 | 66,661 | 1.6% |
| Henderson | 78,532 | 81,064 | 3.2% |
| Hopkins | 35,161 | 36,496 | 3.8% |
| Lamar | 49,793 | 49,587 | -0.4% |
| Marion | 10,546 | 10,064 | -4.6% |
| Morris | 12,934 | 12,467 | -3.6% |
| Panola | 23,796 | 23,243 | -2.3% |
| Rains | 10,914 | 11,762 | 7.8% |
| Red River | 12,860 | 12,229 | -4.9% |
| Rusk | 53,330 | 52,833 | -0.9% |
| Smith | 209,714 | 227,727 | 8.6% |
| Titus | 32,334 | 32,904 | 1.8% |
| Upshur | 39,309 | 41,281 | 5.0% |
| Van Zandt | 52,579 | 55,182 | 5.0% |
| Wood | 41,964 | 44,314 | 5.6% |
| Upper East Region Total | 1,111,696 | 1,144,106 | 2.9% |
| Tyler MSA | 209,714 | 227,727 | 8.6% |
| Texas Total | 25,145,561 | 28,304,596 | 12.6% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Population Composition
According to a recent Census analysis, the median age of the counties in the Upper East Region is significantly higher the state’s as a whole. Almost every county in the region (21 of 23) has a median age significantly higher than the state’s median age of 34.2 years. Marion, at more than 49 years, is the oldest county in the region. The Tyler MSA’s median age of 36.3 years also is higher than the statewide median. Household income in Texas is more or less evenly distributed among five income levels.
Of the more than 9 million households within the state of Texas, 22 percent have incomes less than $25,000 and 16 percent have incomes more than $125,000. In every region of the state, nearly 18 percent of the households have average incomes between $50,000 and $75,000. Household income within the Upper East Region was significantly lower than the state, with only 27.6 percent of the region’s households having average incomes exceeding $75,000 versus 36.3 percent for the state (Exhibit 2).
The Upper East Region’s total population is 14.5 percent Hispanic – more than 24 percentage points lower than Hispanics’ 38.6 percent share of the state population (Exhibit 3). Non-Hispanic blacks represent 15.2 percent of the region’s population – 3.6 percentage points higher than the state average of 11.6 percent.
Exhibit 2: Upper East Region and Texas Household Income
| Income Level | Upper East Region | State Total |
|---|---|---|
| less than $25,000 | 27.4% | 22.2% |
| $25,000 to $50,000 | 27.1% | 23.6% |
| $50,000 to $75,000 | 17.8% | 17.8% |
| $75,000 to $125,000 | 17.9% | 20.2% |
| more than $125,000 | 9.7% | 16.1% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Exhibit 3: Upper East Region and Texas Population by Race and Ethnicity
| Race and Ethnicity | Upper East Region | State Total |
|---|---|---|
| Hispanic | 14.5% | 38.6% |
| Black (not Hispanic) | 15.2% | 11.6% |
| White (not Hispanic) | 67.4% | 43.4% |
| Other | 2.9% | 6.3% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Jobs and Wages
In 2017, the Upper East Region accounted for 3.5 percent of the state’s total employment. The region’s employment increased by more than 2 percent, from 2007 to 2017. Employment in the Tyler MSA increased more than 10 percent over the same period (Exhibit 4). About 25 percent of the region’s total jobs are in the Tyler MSA.
| Area | Number of Jobs, 2017 | Change in Jobs from 2007 | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler MSA | 102,411 | 9,533 | 10.3% |
| Upper East Region | 416,547 | 9,362 | 2.3% |
| Texas | 12,011,078 | 1,779,177 | 17.4% |
| United States | 143,860,846 | 8,495,037 | 6.3% |
Note: The above figures include private and public sector employees with the exception of active duty military personnel, railroad employees, religious institution employees and the self-employed.
Sources: JobsEQ and Bureau of Labor Statistics
The average wage in the Upper East Region was $41,868 in 2017, well below the average wage of the state and nation. From 2007 to 2017, individual wage growth in the region was lower than individual wage growth at the state and national levels during the same period (Exhibit 5).
Adjusted for inflation, individual wages in the Upper East Region increased about 3 percent during this period. Within the region, the Tyler MSA average wage was slightly higher than the region.
| Area | Average Wage, 2017 | Change in Wages from 2007 | Nominal Rate of Change, 2007 to 2017 | Real Rate of Change,* 2007 to 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler MSA | $44,331 | $7,147 | 19.2% | 0.8% |
| Upper East Region | $41,868 | $7,433 | 21.6% | 2.8% |
| Texas | $55,801 | $11,106 | 24.9% | 5.6% |
| United States | $55,375 | $10,917 | 24.6% | 5.4% |
* The constant or “real” rate adjusts average wages for the effects of inflation in the value of a particular base year. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, prices in 2017 are 18.22 percent higher than prices in 2007.
Sources: JobsEQ and Bureau of Labor Statistics
Industry Concentration
Exhibit 6 lists the Upper East Region industry subsectors that are the most highly concentrated according to location quotient (LQ) — a measure of how concentrated an industry is in a region relative to the nation — and by their shares within each subsector of the state’s total jobs. Industries are described according to the federal government’s North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), which is used by federal statistical agencies to classify business establishments.
The Upper East Region’s most highly concentrated industries focus primarily on the extraction and transportation of natural resources and logging and wood products. Employment in the petroleum and coal products manufacturing subsector increased by more than 15 percent from 2007-2017.
| Industry Description (NAICS1) | Job Concentration | Job Trends | Wage Trends | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location Quotient2 | Share of State's Jobs | Number of Jobs | Change, 2007 to 2017 | Average Wage | Nominal Rate3 of Change | Real Rate3 of Change, 2007 to 2017 | |
| Support Activities for Mining (213) | 8.21 | 5.5% | 7,295 | -21.0% | $72,505 | 14.3% | -3.3% |
| Pipeline Transportation (486) | 3.53 | 2.8% | 535 | -17.2% | $116,233 | 24.4% | 5.3% |
| Oil and Gas Extraction (211) | 3.22 | 1.8% | 1,395 | -16.3% | $106,495 | 35.5% | 14.6% |
| Wood Product Manufacturing (321) | 2.77 | 13.7% | 3,308 | -7.7% | $36,128 | 25.8% | 6.4% |
| Forestry and Logging (113) | 2.62 | 28.1% | 454 | -17.5% | $50,832 | 28.0% | 8.3% |
| Animal Production and Aquaculture (112) | 2.37 | 7.4% | 1,878 | -9.4% | $32,226 | 45.0% | 22.6% |
| Paper Manufacturing (322) | 2.15 | 13.6% | 2,381 | -14.7% | $65,677 | 23.4% | 4.4% |
| Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing (324) | 2.02 | 3.0% | 688 | 15.3% | $80,005 | 22.7% | 3.8% |
| Food Manufacturing (311) | 1.96 | 10.0% | 9,395 | -0.6% | $39,680 | 28.7% | 8.9% |
| Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction (237) | 1.96 | 3.9% | 6,819 | -5.6% | $51,385 | 33.0% | 12.5% |
| Upper East Region | - | 3.5% | 416,547 | 2.3% | $41,868 | 21.6% | 2.8% |
Note: The figures above include private and public sector employees with the exception of active duty military personnel, railroad employees, religious institution employees and the self-employed.
- NAICS codes are the standard used by federal statistical agencies in classifying business establishments for the purpose of collecting, analyzing and publishing statistical data related to the U.S. business economy.
- The higher the location quotient, the more concentrated the industry subsector is in the region compared to nation.
- The constant or “real” rate adjusts average wages for the effects of inflation in the value of a particular base year. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, prices in 2017 were 18.22 percent higher than prices in 2007.
Sources: JobsEQ and Bureau of Labor Statistics
Education
A strong educational foundation is the cornerstone for growth and competitiveness in the global economy. As the Texas economy diversifies, becoming more knowledge based, a well-educated workforce offers possibilities for workplace advancement and prospects for business expansion.
In 2016, 93.4 percent of the Upper East Region’s class of public high school students graduated, higher than the state’s graduation rate of 89.1 percent (Exhibit 7). The region’s high school graduation rate reliably outperforms the state’s and has increased about 2 percent since 2010.
Many high school graduates enroll in postsecondary programs, offering greater job prospects and the possibility of earning higher wages. Residents of the Upper East Region enjoy a variety of options for higher educational achievement (Exhibit 8).
| Year | Upper East Region | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 91.1% | 84.3% |
| 2011 | 92.0% | 85.9% |
| 2012 | 93.1% | 87.7% |
| 2013 | 93.6% | 88.0% |
| 2014 | 93.6% | 88.3% |
| 2015 | 93.6% | 89.0% |
| 2016 | 93.4% | 89.1% |
Source: Texas Education Agency
Exhibit 8: Upper East Region Institutions of Higher Education, 2017
Universities
- East Texas Baptist University
- Jarvis Christian College
- LeTourneau University
- Texas A&M University – Texarkana
- Texas College
- The University of Texas at Tyler
- Wiley College
Health Science Schools
- The University of Texas Health Science Center at Tyler
Junior and Community Colleges
- Jacksonville College
- Kilgore College
- Northeast Texas Community College
- Panola College
- Paris Junior College
- Texarkana College
- Texas State Technical College – Marshall
- Trinity Valley Community College
- Tyler Junior College
Source: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board
Regional Economy
The Comptroller's office has analyzed data pertaining to the Upper East Region, examining the region’s dynamics and competitiveness.
Sales Tax Revenue
Sales receipts subject to state sales tax directly attributable to the Upper East Region have trended upward in the past decade (Exhibit 9). The region has experienced fluctuations following the 2009 recession, with an upward trend line (trend lines depict trends in data, either upward, downward or flat, for an extended period of time).
Receipts from 2017 continued to fluctuate, but the overall trend is upward. For 2017, receipts subject to state sales tax directly attributed to businesses in the Upper East Region exceeded $11.6 billion, contributing about 2.4 percent to the state’s overall sales tax revenue collections. The Tyler MSA directly accounted for $3.1 billion of this total.
A review of two-digit NAICS codes allows for a broad analysis of industry sectors within the region. The retail trade and the food services and accommodation sectors contribute most to taxable sales, with the two combining for more than 71 percent of the region’s state sales tax contributions. Two other industries of note are the wholesale trade and the manufacturing sectors, combining for 13 percent of the region’s reported sales tax contributions.
| Year | Upper East Region |
|---|---|
| 2007 | $10,077,896,974 |
| 2008 | $10,872,249,312 |
| 2009 | $9,697,277,606 |
| 2010 | $9,833,398,095 |
| 2011 | $10,376,029,054 |
| 2012 | $10,671,559,318 |
| 2013 | $10,819,907,108 |
| 2014 | $11,557,686,863 |
| 2015 | $11,529,632,444 |
| 2016 | $11,190,625,633 |
| 2017 | $11,633,255,832 |
Note: Numbers shown are for reported revenue subject to sales tax and directly attributed to the region.
Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
U.S. Military Installation Impact
Texas has 13 U.S. military installations within its borders. In 2017, these bases directly employed more than 224,000 and supported nearly 625,000 jobs. The U.S. military installations in Texas contributed about $62.3 billion to the state’s gross domestic product (GDP).
Military installations in the Upper East Region have a positive impact on the Texas economy, supporting an estimated 12,000 jobs and contributing about $1 billion to the state’s GDP (Exhibit 10).
| Region | Total Jobs Supported | U.S. Military Contribution to State GDP |
|---|---|---|
| State of Texas | 624,690 | $62.3 billion |
| Upper East | 11,926 | $1.0 billion |
Sources: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, TMPC, REMI
Upper East Region vs. the U.S.
Based on data from the World Bank and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, if Texas were a nation, it would rank as the world’s 10th largest economy in terms of GDP.
Exhibit 11 shows how the region rates with other states and the nation on several demographic and economic measures. Were it a state, the Upper East Region would be the 42nd largest in the nation in terms of land mass (square miles) and the 43rd largest by population. The region also would have the 35th lowest unemployment rate based on 2017 data.
| Measure | Upper East Region | Rank if Region was a State |
Texas | State Rank | U.S. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 1,144,106 | 43 | 28,304,596 | 2 | 325,719,178 |
| Population age 25+ with at least a high school diploma | 83.2% | 48 | 82.4% | 49 | 87.0% |
| Population age 25+ with bachelor’s degree or higher | 18.2% | 51 | 28.1% | 29 | 30.3% |
| Population under 18 years | 23.8% | 11 | 26.0% | 2 | 22.6% |
| Population 65 years and over | 17.9% | 7 | 12.3% | 48 | 15.7% |
| Age dependency ratio* | 71.5% | 51 | 62.1% | 20 | 61.9% |
| Per capita income | $39,806 | 43 | $46,204 | 25 | $49,204 |
| Unemployment rate | 4.6% | 35 | 4.3% | 26 | 4.4% |
* The age dependency ratio is the share of dependent-age persons compared to the working-age population minus the sum of those under 18 years and 65 and older divided by the population age 18 to 64. In other words, for every 100 working-age people in Texas there are about 62 dependent-age people.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Conclusion
The Upper East Region and its 23 counties have many economic variables and challenges that are unique. The region features a diverse economy that is both rural and urban. Forming the economic hub is Smith County (the sole county in the Tyler MSA). It is the region’s most populous county as well as the fastest growing.
The region saw limited population growth since 2010, its median age is significantly older than the state’s as a whole, and average household income is less than the statewide average. The U.S. military’s presence has had a positive economic impact on the region, however, and most of the top 10 most concentrated industries saw a significant rise in average wages from 2007 to 2017. The region’s high school graduation rate has reliably outperformed the state’s rate year after year, and the local economy has seen a steady increase in receipts subject to state sales tax since the 2009 recession.
Questions?
If you have any questions or concerns regarding the material on this page, please contact the Comptroller’s Data Analysis and Transparency Division.